When you see trade deficit data between the US and China, be aware that the numbers are vastly different depending on the source. China actually follows a more commonly used protocol to account for trade than does the US. For 2016, for example, US data shows a $375 billion trade deficit with China, whereas China shows $276 billion.

Spring is my favorite time of year here in Washington, DC. The weather begins to warm (bringing pleasant memories of spring and summer months long passed), plants and flowers return (especially the cherry blossoms), the grill is awakened from its winter hibernation, baseball begins, and Warren Buffet’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders arrives in the mail.

Part of our early January ritual is to read a number of market and economic projections for the upcoming year. And although they are interesting and (generally) thoughtful, to be frank, the articles are basically all the same…