For the new Congress, deciding the fate of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will present an immediate dilemma. Allowing the law’s provisions to expire as scheduled at the end of the year would effectively raise taxes on tens of millions of Americans.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
It’s early days, but there already appears to be a clear buzzword among corporate executives this earnings season: tariffs.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
The growth in US retirement assets offers potential opportunities for retirement plan advisors to likewise expand their business. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses growth opportunities in the retirement market and how to enhance client engagement.
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Guidance and spending will be important to watch as analysts have their eyes on annual revenue growth, especially after news of DeepSeek shocked U.S. markets.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
China’s efforts to steer between domestic and international growth challenges in 2025 could be good for bond investors.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
The first month of 2025 will soon be behind us. We’ve seen new inflation data and earnings season start to ramp up.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of 2024. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is below the forecasted 2.7% growth and is slower than the Q3 final estimate of 3.1%.
Boeing Co. reported on Tuesday that it burned through $14 billion of cash in 2024 and is likely to post negative cash flow this year as well. Regardless, its shares jumped as much as 7.6%.
By now, almost everyone has heard about DeepSeek, the Chinese-made AI that has taught the US a thing or two about building cheaper artificial intelligence.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
You’ve likely heard the saying “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.” A similar principle can apply to investing: “when the going gets tough, stay in the market.”
We wrote this in the evening last night and with the news so fluid, there are further things we could add this morning.
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates, adding the central bank is pausing to see further progress on inflation following a string of rate reductions last year.
US Treasuries were lower as traders parsed tweaks to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement regarding progress on the fight against inflation.
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
Fixed income comes into 2025 on the heels of an explosive 2024. But with 2025’s landscape shifting, investors need guidance.
There are times in life when factors conspire to make it very difficult to be as productive as we need to – and want to – be. But even in the midst of these times it’s important to feel like you have some control and do the things that will keep you on track. Control the controllable.
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
“Debanking” is about to get a lot of airtime in US politics, but be warned: This debate is a chimera. Crypto enthusiasts, culture warriors and banks all have dogs in the hunt, with each leaning on the others’ interests and narratives to advance their own.
If OpenAI LLC were a listed company, Monday would have been a very bad day for the stock.
Buried in a rote US Treasury survey released on the eve of the latest holiday weekend was a question that all of Wall Street wants the answer to: What’s the Federal Reserve’s plan once it’s done drawing down its crisis-era bond holdings?
Every year, millions of Americans living abroad suffer a profound administrative indignity: complying with a US income-tax regime that treats them like miscreants and complicates the lives even of those who owe nothing.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has proposed restrictions on large financial firms buying homes, and state legislators in Virginia and Nebraska have similar ideas.
Microsoft Corp. and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek, according to people familiar with the matter.
Close scrutiny of the investment landscape reveals there is precious little room for the Trump administration to improve conditions for stocks. There is also room for current narratives to fall a long way.