The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.

More…

Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

More…

Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.

More…

In the week ending May 3rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 228,000. This represents a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 231,000.

More…

The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.

More…

Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025

Bitcoin's closing price hovered around $96,000 this week, remaining near its highest level in over two months. BTC is up ~3% year to date and is ~9% below its record high from January 2025.

More…

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.

More…

April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).

More…

Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.

More…

The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high as imports rose more than exports. In March, the trade deficit rose 14.0% to -$140.5B, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months.

More…

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

More…

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.

More…

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

More…

With the Q1 GDP advance estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.8%, down slightly from the previous quarter.

More…

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $21,618 for an annualized real return of 15.52%.

More…

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.

More…

The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.

More…

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 25th, the index was at 6.038, down 1.531 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

More…

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

More…

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

More…

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 35.2% from that peak.

More…

The latest employment report showed that 177,000 jobs were added in April, down from 185,000 in March but higher than the expected 138,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.

More…

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

More…

The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.74, down from 1.85 in March. This is the lowest level in fifteen months.

More…

Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 36.0 is 137% above its arithmetic mean, 159% above its geometric mean, and is in the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

More…

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.

More…

At the end of April, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 145% above its long-term trend, down from 160% in March. This is the lowest variance in twelve months.

More…

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.

More…

U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.

More…

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.

More…

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

More…

With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.

More…

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.

More…

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

More…

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP advance estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.

More…

The advance estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.28%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.89%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.

More…

The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years to start off 2025. The BEA"s advance estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025. The latest estimate was lower than the 0.2% forecast and lower than the Q4 final estimate of 2.5%.

More…

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in March, marking the lowest level for the index since June. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 3.0% in February. On a monthly basis, the index was flat, lower than the expected 0.1% growth.

More…

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in March, experiencing its largest monthly increase in over two years. The index came in at 76.5, a 6.1% jump from the previous month but a 0.6% decline from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.

More…

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for the first time this year. The index dropped to 44.6 this month from 47.6 in March, falling short of the 45.9 forecast. The latest reading marks the 17th consecutive month the index has contracted.

More…

The ADP employment report revealed that 62,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in April, down from 147,000 in March. The latest reading was lower than the expected 114,000 addition.

More…

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In April, the MCSI fell to 52.2, its lowest level since July 2022. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped to 86.0, is lowest level since May 2020.

More…

March's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a fewer-than-anticipated job openings, with vacancies falling to 7.192 million. This is the lowest number of openings in six months and below the expected 7.490 million. Additionally, hires and quits saw slight increases, while layoffs declined.

More…

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® plunged to its lowest level in nearly five years in April. The index fell to 86.0 this month from March's upwardly revised 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2008.

More…

Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.

More…

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 437.3 in February. U.S. house prices were up 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.3% growth, and up 3.9% from one year ago. This marks the 30th consecutive monthly increase for the index.

More…

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for April. The general business activity index came in at -35.8, its lowest level since 2020. This marks a 19.5 point decline from the previous month and the third straight monthly decline.

More…

The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.

More…

Consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April as ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation worries continue to drag down consumer attitudes. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 52.2 in April, one of the lowest levels on record.

More…

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity declined modestly in April, with the composite index at -4. This marks the 20th consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 10 in March to 6 in April.

More…

Existing home sales sank in March with their largest monthly decline since 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 5.9% from February, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units in March.

More…

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $315.73B in March. This represents a 9.2% increase from the previous month and a 11.9% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 2.1% monthly growth.

More…

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.03 in March from +0.24 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March.

More…

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. The latest debt level is at $880.316 billion, down 4.3% from February. This is the second straight month the debt level has declined and is the largest monthly drop since October 2023.

More…

New home sales reached a six-month high in March while the median price fell for a second straight month.

More…

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed further in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell nine points this month to -13 after falling ten points in March, marking the largest two-month decline since early 2022. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -6.

More…

Home values fell for the first time in two years in March, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for an 11th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.

More…

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits unexpectedly rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.482 million in March. This marks a 1.6% increase from February but a 0.2% decline compared to one year ago.

More…

In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts plummeted to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.324 million in March. This marks an 11.4% decrease from February, the largest monthly decline in a year, but a 1.9% increase compared to one year ago.

More…

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline in activity this month. The index sank nearly 39 points to -26.4, its lowest reading in two years. The latest reading was much lower than the forecast of 2.2.

More…

Nominal retail sales in March were up 1.43% month-over-month (MoM) and up 4.60% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 1.48% MoM and up 2.15% YoY.

More…

Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.

More…

Industrial production fell 0.3% in March, the first monthly drop since November and more than the expected 0.2% decline. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 1.3%.

More…

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for March showed a surge in consumer spending last month, with headline sales rising 1.4%. This is the largest monthly increase since January 2023 and higher than the expected 1.3% growth.

More…

Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.

More…

Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.

More…

Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.

More…

This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.

More…

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.

More…

When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

More…

As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.

More…

In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.

More…

Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

More…

The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

More…

What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

More…

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

More…

Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

More…

A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

More…

In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

More…

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

More…

As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

More…

AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.

More…

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

More…

Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

More…

We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

More…

The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

More…

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

More…

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

More…

The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

More…

Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

More…

Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

More…

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

More…

The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

More…

Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

More…

In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

More…

Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

More…

The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

More…

As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

More…

We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

More…

Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

More…

In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

More…

Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

More…

This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

More…

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

More…

Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

More…

With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

More…

The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

More…

An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

More…

If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

More…

Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

More…

College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

More…

We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

More…

According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

More…

Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

More…

Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

More…

With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

More…

Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

More…

With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

More…

According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

More…

Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

More…

The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

More…

What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

More…

This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

More…

We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

More…