In the week ending September 16, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since January. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were at 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 221,000. The latest reading was below the forecast of 225,000.

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For the first time in September, Bitcoin's price pushed above $27,000. BTC is now up ~60% year to date. Here's the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 9/19.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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Gas prices climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of October last year. As of September 18, the price of regular and premium gas rose by 6 and 8 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $90.58, up 3.8% from last week.

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New residential housing starts plummeted to their slowest pace since 2020 according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, housing starts dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million, falling short of the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks an 11.3% decrease from July and a 14.8% decline compared to one year ago.

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New residential building permits jumped to their fastest pace in almost a year according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In August, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.543 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.440 million. This marks a 6.9% increase from July but reflects a 2.7% decrease compared to the same period last year.

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Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through September 18, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 28.51%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 16.46% while India's BSE SENSEX moved into third with a YTD gain of 10.28%.

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FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The latest debt level fell for the first time since April to $689.19 billion. Margin debt is down 2.9% month-over-month (MoM) and up 0.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 3.3% MoM and down 3.3% YoY.

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High mortgage rates continue to weaken builder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 5 points from last month to 45, the index's second straight monthly decline.

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Industrial production increased for a second straight month in August, surpassing expectations yet again. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.4%, outpacing the projected 0.1% growth. Additionally, compared to one year ago, industrial production showed an increase of 0.25%.

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The September preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 67.7, down 1.8 (-2.6%) from the August final. This morning's reading was below the forecast of 69.1. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 20.4% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) of 85.1 and 19.4% below its geometric mean of 84.0.

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 20.9 points from last month to 1.9. This morning's reading was better than the forecast of -10.0 and pushes the index back into expansion territory.

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Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

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Month-over-month nominal retail sales in August were up 0.6% and up 2.47% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.1% MoM and down 1.19% year-over-year.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August revealed a 0.6% increase in headline sales compared to July, marking the fifth consecutive month consumer spending has increased. The latest figure surpassed expectations of 0.2% monthly growth. Core sales (ex Autos) also exceeded expectations by registering 0.6% growth in August, defying the forecasted 0.2% increase.

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Wholesale inflation rose more than expected in August as producer prices increased for a second straight month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.7% month-over-month, its largest monthly increase since June 2022 (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated for a second straight month from 0.8% in July to 1.6% in August (n.s.a).

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The median US income in 2022 was $74,580, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 233% rise over the 38-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2022 dollars, the 1984 median is $56,780, and the increase drops to 31%.

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This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2022. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell by 2.3% to $74,580. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2022 published in earlier this month gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $75,980.

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Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued earlier this month, with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2022.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for August puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.67%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.75% average since the end of the Second World War for the third straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.67%.

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I've updated this series to include the August release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $49,010, down 8.1% from over 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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Over the last year and a half, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Recently, we have started to slowly make our way back down and are currently at levels seen during the early 1990s recession. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.

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Headline inflation rose for a second straight month in August while core inflation continued to cool. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index increased to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.2% in July. The latest reading is slightly higher than the expected 3.6% annual increase. The core CPI reading was consistent with expectations at 4.3%, a slow down from 4.7% in July.

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Our commentary on household income distribution focuses on average household incomes over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offers some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income from a different perspective with a focus on age bracket.

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The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 91.3 in August, as small business owners continued to report inflation as their biggest problem. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 91.6 and marked the 20th consecutive month the index has been below the series average of 98.

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Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?

• A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
• B) Total Mortgages
• C) Taxes Receivable
• D) Student Loans

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As of Q2 2023, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 160% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has increased by only 82% since the 2009 trough.

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Travel on all roads and streets increased in July. The 12-month moving average was up 0.3% month-over-month and was up 1.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.2% MoM and up 0.1% YoY.

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The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of August, the labor force participation rate is at 62.8%, up from the previous month and higher than anticipated.

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I've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest employment report for August. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 187K.

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Let's take a close look at August's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.2% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.8% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).

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Multiple jobholders account for 4.8% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, nearly one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 31, 2023 close.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $14,122 for an annualized real return of 6.92%.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its August services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.5, which was above the forecast of 52.5. The latest reading marks the eighth straight month the index has been expansion territory.

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The August US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 50.5, which was just below the 51.0 forecast. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the seventh straight month, but represents the weakest growth over that time frame.

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The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.

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The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In July, the trade deficit expanded by 2.0% to $65.02B. The latest reading was below the forecast of $68.00B.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31st, it was 4.09%.

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With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 168.5%, up from 162.5% the previous quarter.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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Based on the August S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 33.5 is 124% above its arithmetic mean, 144% above its geometric mean, and is at the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.0 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 30.4.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.54, down from 1.56 in July.

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Quick take: At the end of August, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 131% above its long-term trend, down from July.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward 45 years, it is down 39.5% from that peak.

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There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 187,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%. The forecast was for 170,000 jobs gained and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.5%.

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As of August 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 373 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 47.6 in August. The latest figure marks the tenth consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The August reading was above the forecast of 47.0.

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The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 from 49.0 in July, signaling a stronger downturn in operating conditions. The August reading was higher than the expected 47.0 reading.

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The latest employment report showed 187,000 jobs were added in August, more than the expected addition 170,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, its highest level since February 2022.

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Valid until the market close on September 30, 2023

The S&P 500 closed August with a monthly loss of 1.71%, after a gain of 3.22% in July. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— is signaling "cash", up from last month's single "cash" signal.

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The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.2%. The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 4.7%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 second estimate), real personal income less transfer receipts (for July 2023) and initial jobless claims through 8/26.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose to 48.7 in August from 42.8 in July. While this is the highest level for the index in the past year, the latest reading marks twelve straight months in contraction territory.

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With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.01% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.23% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.66% nominal and 3.27% real.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in July and is up 4.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation edged higher in July. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and rose to 3.3% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was also up 0.2% monthly and edged higher to 4.2% year-over-year, still well above the 2% target rate.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three out of the four components made positive contributions and one component made negative contributions.

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The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.1%, an increase from 2.0% for the Q1 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.60%, a slight increase from 1.56% for the Q1 headline number.

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The ADP employment report showed that 177K nonfarm private jobs were added in August, a slow down from the 312K jobs added last month. The latest figure is lower than the expected 195K new private jobs and is the smallest monthly increase since March.

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The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index unexpectedly edged higher to 77.6, representing a 0.9% increase from last month. This is the second straight month pending home sales have increased and is higher than the expected -0.6% decline. Pending home sales are down 14.0% compared to one year ago.

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Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2 2023, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is slower than the expected 2.4% growth but is a faster pace than the Q1 2023 GDP final estimate of 2.0%.

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The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings dropped to their lowest level in over two years. Vacancies fell to 8.827 million in July, lower than the expected 9.465 million vacancies.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in August after two months of improvement. The index dropped to 106.1 from July's downwardly revised reading of 114.0. This month's reading was worse than expected, falling far below the 116.0 forecast. 

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The positive momentum continued in June as home prices for the benchmark 20-city index rose for a fourth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.9% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.5% and the YoY was reduced to -8.4%.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued its climb in June, coming in at 405.8. U.S. house prices increased by 0.3% from the previous month and by 3.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The August average of the five districts is -6.2, up from the previous month.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for July. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June. Two of the four categories made positive contributions in July.

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The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index was unchanged in August and the future outlook rose slightly. The composite index came in at 0, up from -11 in July, while the future outlook increased to 2 from -2 last month.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods fell for the first time in February, coming in at $285.93B in July. This is a 5.2% decrease from the previous month and is worse than the expected 4.0% decline. The series is up 3.8% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were up 0.5% from the previous month and up 1.1% from one year ago.

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The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000 units, up 4.4% month-over-month from a revised rate of 684,000 in June. The reported sales figure is above the forecast of 705,000. The median home price is now at $436,700, up $20,000 from June on a nominal basis.

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Fifth district manufacturing activity remained sluggish in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index inched up from -9 in July to -7 in August, marking its 16th consecutive negative reading. This month's reading is consistent with the forecast.

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Household debt increased by $16 billion (0.1%) to $17.06 trillion in Q2 2023. Credit card balances rose by $45 billion to a series high of $1.03 trillion. Meanwhile, student loan balances fell to $1.57 trillion while mortgage balances were largely unchanged at $12.01 trillion.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2023 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.9%, down 0.1% from Q1 2023.

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Here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2023 close.

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.07. The current price is down 6 cents from last week and down $1.05 compared to one year ago.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. We are now tracking each of the four at the following individual links:

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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