Multiple jobholders account for 4.8% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 339,000 nonfarm jobs were added in May. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 313,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 26,000 goods-producing jobs.

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Bitcoin finished May down 7.0% from last month. This past week, Bitcoin inched down and dropped below $26,000 for the first time since mid-March. Here's the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 6/6.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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The U.S. international trade in goods and services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In April, the trade deficit expanded by 23% to $74.60B. This is the largest gap the trade balance has seen in the last 6 months. The latest reading was smaller than the -$75.20B forecast.

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Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 31, 2023 close.

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As of June 5, the price of regular and premium gas decreased by 3 cents and 2 cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for regular at $4.79 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.93. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $72.15 and up 3.9% from last week.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $13,927 for an annualized real return of 6.64%.

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The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes peaked in November of 2021 and 2022 was a bear market. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance.

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With the Q1 GDP second estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 156.4%, up from 151.8% the previous quarter.

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Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 5, 2023. Nikkei 225 continued to climb, finishing in the top spot with a YTD gain of 23.46%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 11.76% while Germany's DAXK jumped into third with a YTD gain of 9.09%.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of May 31, 2023, it was 3.64%.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released its May services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.3, which was below the forecast of 51.8. The latest reading marks the fifth consecutive month the index has been expansion territory.

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The May US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 54.9, which was just below the 55.1 forecast. This morning's reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the fourth straight month and is the strongest reading in over a year. 

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The yield on the 10-year note ended June 2, 2023 at 3.69%, the 2-year note ended at 4.50%, and the 30-year at 3.88%.

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There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. May saw a 339,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The forecast was for 180,000 jobs gained.

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The moving average for the light vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Almost 45 years later, it is down 40.5% from that peak.

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The employment report for May showed a 339,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The addition is well above expectations of 180,000 new obs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

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Based on the May S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 31.9 is 114% above its arithmetic mean, 132% above its geometric mean, and is at the 97th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 28.7.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.41, unchanged from April.

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Quick take: At the end of May, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 117% above its long-term trend, unchanged from April.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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As of May 31, 2023, the 10-year note was 312 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 46.9 in May. The lates figure marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The May reading was just below the forecast of 47.0.

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The May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ dropped for the first time in five months to 48.4. The latest figure moves the index back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month stint in expansion territory. The May reading is slightly below the forecast of 48.5.

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The ADP employment report showed that 278K nonfarm private jobs were added in May, a slow down from the 291K jobs added last month. The latest figure is well above the forecast of 170K new private jobs.

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Valid until the market close on June 30, 2023

The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 0.25%, after a gain of 1.46% in April. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final double "cash" signal.

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The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April, released last Friday, shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.7%. The April core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 5.5%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose unexpectedly to 10.103 million in April. This is the first monthly increase in job openings since December. The latest figure came in above the forecast of 9.775 million vacancies.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) regressed to 40.4 in May from 48.6 in April. This is the ninth straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in below the forecast of 47.0.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The May average of the five districts is -17.5, down from the previous month. This is the lowest monthly average in the last three years.

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for May. The latest general business activity index came in at -29.1, down 5.7 from last month. The general business activity index has declined each of the past four months and has been in contraction territory since May of last year.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index ® slipped to 102.3 in May from April's upwardly revised reading of 103.7. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 99.0 forecast. The latest figure is the index's lowest reading in the past six months.

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Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up month-over-month by 0.1% and was up 0.3% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.0% MoM and down 0.8% YoY.

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In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. house price index (HPI) for March. The index reached a record high last month, coming in at 398.0. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 3.6%. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% in March and up 0.2% year-over-year.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for April. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The second estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 1.3%, a decrease from 2.6% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 0.8%, a decrease from 2.0% for the Q4 headline number.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q1 2023 second estimate) and initial jobless claims through 5/20.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in April and is up 5.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year.

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The May final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 59.2, down 4.3 (6.8%) from the April final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 57.9. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 30.5% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 29.6% below its geometric mean.

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With the release of this morning's report on April's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.37% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.00% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.36% nominal and 2.87% real.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for April was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) and increased to 4.4% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE was also up 0.4% monthly and rose to 4.7% year-over-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods came in better than expected in April at $283.02B. This is a 1.1% increase from last month and higher than the expected 1.1% decline. The series is up 4.2% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from last month and down 0.2% from last year.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four categories made negative contributions in April. All four categories improved from March.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 GDP second estimate, two out of the four components made positive contributions, one component made negative contributions, while the remaining component had a neutral impact.

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The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index came in at -1. This is an increase from last month's figure and better than the expected -5 reading. The future outlook came in at 2, down slightly from April.

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The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The latest index remained at 78.9, representing a 0.0% change from last month, lower than the expected 0.5% increase. Pending home sales are down 20.3% compared to one year ago.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.07 in April from -0.37 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from March, but two of the four categories made negative contributions in April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.22 in April from -0.12 in March.

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Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in Q1 2023, according to the second estimate. This is slower than the Q4 2022 GDP third estimate of 2.6% growth but quicker than the initial estimate of 1.1% growth.

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Fifth district manufacturing deteriorated in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index is at -15 in May, down 5 from April. This month's reading is worse than the Investing.com forecast of -8 and is the fifth consecutive month the index has reported worsening conditions.

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This morning's release of the April new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at 683K, up 4.1% month-over-month from a revised 656K in March. This is above the Investing.com forecast of 663K and the highest level in over a year. The median home price is now at $420,800, down $35K from March on a nominal basis.

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April's ZHVI came in at $339.048, up 0.34% from March and up 3.30% from April 2022. This is the second consecutive monthly increase in home value. After adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.21% month-over-month and -4.45% year-over-year.

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This morning's release of the April existing home sales showed that sales continued to fall for a second straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million units from the previous month's 4.43 million. The latest number represents a 3.4% month-over-month decrease and was well below the forecast of a 0.1% increase in sales. Existing home sales are now down 23.2% compared to one year ago.

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The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April dropped to 107.5 from March's revised figure of 108.2. This is the 13th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009, and the lowest reading since September 2020. Today's reading represented a 0.6% month-over-month decline, consistent with the forecast.

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The latest manufacturing index came in at -10.4, up 20.9 from last month, marking the index's ninth negative reading in a row. The six-month outlook was down 8.8 points from last month and remains in negative territory for the third straight month at -10.3.

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Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their April findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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Month-over-month nominal retail sales in April were up 0.42% and up 1.60% YoY. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales increased by 0.05% and were down 3.20% YoY.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.401M was just above Investing.com's forecast of 1.400M and is a 2.2% increase from the March's revised figure of 1.371M. Housing starts are down 22.3% compared to this time last year.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.416M came in below Investing.com's forecast of 1.437M and is a 1.5% decrease from March’s revised figure of 1.437M. Building permits are down 21.1% compared to one year ago.

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FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. The latest debt level is at 631.95 billion, down 2.1% month-over-month (MoM) and down 18.2% year-over-year (YoY). However after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 2.6% MoM and down 22.1% YoY.

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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The latest reading came in better than expected (45) at 50, up 5 from last month, and is the index's highest reading in the last ten months.

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This morning's report revealed industrial production numbers rose 0.5% in April, higher than the forecast of 0.1% decline. The annual change rose to 0.24%, up from last month's downwardly revised increase of 0.07%.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April was released this morning. Headline sales were up 0.4% month-over-month, below the expected 0.8% increase. Core sales (ex Autos) were also up 0.4% in April, in-line with expectations.

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Household debt increased by $148 billion (0.9%) to $17.05 trillion in Q1 2023. Mortgage balances climbed the highest to $12.04 trillion while auto loan and student loan balances increased to $1.56 trillion and $1.60 trillion, respectively. Credit card balances remained flat at $986 billion.

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This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 42.6 points from last month to -31.8, its biggest monthly decrease in 3 years. This morning's reading was well below the Investing.com forecast of -3.7 and puts the index back into contraction territory for the fifth time in six months.

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I've updated this series to include the April release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,368, down 8.3% from 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for April puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 4.93%. It is well above the 3.75% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 2.61%.

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Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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This morning's release of the April Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.4% decrease in prices. Headline PPI for final demand is at 2.3% year-over-year, down from a 2.7% increase last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

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The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for April is 4.0%, down 0.3% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 3.4%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 4.9% and Core CPI is 5.5%.

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Over the last year and a half, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Recently, we have started to slowly make our way back down and are currently at levels seen during the early 1990s recession. Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year Headline CPI came in at 4.9%, down from 5.0% the previous month (n.s.a) and lower than the forecast of 5.0%. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in as expected at 5.5%, down from 5.6% the previous month (n.s.a).

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The headline number for April dropped to its lowest level since January 2013, coming in at 89.0, down 1.1 from the previous month and below the Investing.com forecast of 89.6. April's reading remains below the series average of 98.2 for the 16th consecutive month. The index is at the 5th percentile in this series.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2023 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 66.0%, up 0.1% from Q4 2022.

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In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the March 31, 2023 close.

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The latest price of home heating oil nationwide dropped to its lowest price of the year at $4.07. The current price is down 6 cents from last week and down $1.05 compared to one year ago.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. In terms of income, this class has not gained much in recent decades. Let's take a closer look at a troubling aspect of the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued in September. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2020.

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The median US income in 2020 was $67,521, up from $22,415 in 1984 — a 201% rise over the 36-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2020 dollars, the 1984 median is $51,742, and the increase drops to 27%.

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What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2019 published in September gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $67,521.

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We have updated our commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau's release of the 2020 annual data. Our focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes. But the classification misses the implications of age for income. Households are by no means locked into the same quintile over time.

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This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2020. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell to $67,521. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. We are now tracking each of the four at the following individual links:

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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