With the Q3 GDP second estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 180.5%, up from 173.1% the previous quarter.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of November 30, it was 4.37%.

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The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell to their lowest level in 2.5 years in October from September's downwardly revised level. Vacancies dropped to 8.733 million, below the expected 9.300 million vacancies.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.7, which was above the 52.0 forecast. The latest reading marks the 11th straight month the index has been expansion territory.

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The November U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 50.8, consistent with the forecast. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the 10th straight month.

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Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through December 4, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 27.35%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 19.50% while India's BSE SENSEX moved into third with a YTD gain of 12.35%.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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Based on the November S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 33.0 is 121% above its arithmetic mean, 140% above its geometric mean, and is at the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 23.4 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 29.9.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.54, up from 1.47 in October.

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Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 129% above its long-term trend, up from October.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward 45 years, it is now down 38.9% from that peak.

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The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year on Friday as it capped off a fifth consecutive week of gains. The index finished the week up 0.8% from last Friday and is currently up 20.15% year to date.

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As of November 30, 2023, the 10-year note was 385 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) remained at 46.7 in November. The latest figure marks the 13th straight month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The November reading was below the forecast of 47.6.

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The November S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 from 50.0 in October, signaling a renewed decline in operating conditions. The latest reading was consistent with expectations. The index has now fallen back into contraction territory after a brief 1-month expansion.

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The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 17th, the index was at 10.531, down 0.444 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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Valid until the market close on December 31, 2023

The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 8.92%, after a loss of 2.20% in October. After close on the last day of the month, one of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) — is signaling "cash", down from last month's final quadruple "cash" signal.

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The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October shows that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 3.5%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 4.0%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index fell 1.5% in October to 71.4, the index's lowest reading since the NAR began tracking data in 2001, and is down 8.5% compared to one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 2.0% last month.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) jumped to 55.8 in November from 44.0 in October, marking the highest level in the past 17 months. The latest reading is better than the 45.4 forecast and pushes the index into expansion territory for the first time in 15 months.

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With the release of October's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.26% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.44% nominal and 3.33% real.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.3% in October and is up 5.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation slowed as expected in October. Core PCE, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 0.2% from September and slowed to 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest reading in over two years but still above the Fed's 2% target rate.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q3 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

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The second estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 5.15%, an acceleration from 2.06% for the Q2 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 4.55%, an increase from 1.60% for the Q2 headline number.

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Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is higher than the forecasted 4.9% growth and is more than double the pace of the Q2 2023 GDP final estimate of 2.1%.

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Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -5 in November from 3 in October, marking its 1st negative reading in the past 3 months. This month's reading was worse than the forecasted reading of 1.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® bounced back in November following three straight monthly declines. The index increased to 102.0 from October's downwardly revised reading of 99.1. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 101.0 forecast.

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Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a eighth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.7% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 3.9% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.1% and the YoY was reduced to -2.9%.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in September, coming in at 414.8. U.S. house prices increased by 0.6% from the previous month and by 6.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.4% month-over-month and up 4.0% year-over-year.

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for November. The latest general business activity index came in at -19.9, down 0.7 from last month. This is the third consecutive monthly decline in the general business activity index and marks the 19th consecutive month it has been in contraction territory.

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The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.

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FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level fell for a third straight month to $635.28 billion. Margin debt is down 6.7% month-over-month (MoM) and down 2.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is down 6.7% MoM and down 5.3% YoY.

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Consumer sentiment fell for a fourth consecutive month in November according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 61.3, down 2.5 points (-3.9%) from the October final. This morning's reading was above the forecast of 60.4.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods fell more than expected in October, coming in at $279.44B. This is a 5.4% decrease from the previous month and is more than the expected 3.1% decline. The series is up 0.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% from one year ago.

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Existing home sales fell further, remaining at their lowest level since 2010, as lack of inventory and high mortgage rates continued to impact sales. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.1% from September to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 3.90 million. Existing home sales are down 14.6% compared to one year ago.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.49 in October from -0.02 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September and all four categories made negative contributions in October. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to -0.22 in October from 0.00 in September.

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The yield on the 10-year note ended November 17, 2023 at 4.44%, the 2-year note ended at 4.88%, and the 30-year at 4.59%.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 19th consecutive month in October as the LEI resumed signaling a recession in the near term. The index dropped 0.8% from last month to 103.9, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.

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I've updated this series to include the October release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $49,185, down 8.1% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.

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In October, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.345 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from September and a 4.2% decline compared to one year ago.

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In October, building permits reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.450 million. This marks a 1.1% increase from September and a 4.4% decline compared to one year ago.

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In October, nominal home values increased for a 7th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 2nd straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $346,653, up 0.26% from the previous month and up 1.75% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.14% month-over-month and -4.77% year-over-year.

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The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined again in November and the future outlook inched down. The composite index came in at -2, up from -8 in October, while the future outlook dropped to -1.

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High mortgage rates continue to impact builder confidence as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell for a fourth consecutive month. With that said, recent macroeconomic data suggest improved conditions in the coming months. The index dropped 6 points from last month to 34, the index's lowest level since December 2022.

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Industrial production declined for the first time in four months in October. On a monthly basis, industrial production fell 0.6%, a larger drop that the projected 0.3% decline. Additionally, compared to one year ago, industrial production showed a decrease of 0.68%.

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The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose this month but remained in negative territory for the 3rd straight month, indicating a continued decline overall. In November, the index increased to -5.9, coming in above the forecast of -9.0. The six-month outlook fell to -2.1, its first negative reading in 6 months.

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Month-over-month nominal retail sales in October were down 0.1% and up 2.48% year-over-year. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.2% MoM and down 0.73% year-over-year.

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Manufacturing activity grew modestly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing November survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 13.7 points from last month to 9.1. This morning's reading was better than the forecast of -2.8 and pushes the index back into expansion territory.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October revealed a 0.1% decrease in headline sales compared to September, marking the first month consumers have pulled back their spending since March. The latest figure was less than the anticipated 0.3% monthly decline. Core sales (ex Autos) beat expectations by increasing 0.1% in October compared to the expected 0.2% decline.

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Wholesale inflation rose less than expected in October as producer price growth slowed for the first time in four months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.5% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI decelerated from 2.2% in September to 1.3% in October.

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Over the last year and a half, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but core CPI remains elevated, sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for October puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.24%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.75% average since the end of the Second World War for the 5th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.71%.

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Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 90.7 in October, as small business owners continued to not feel optimistic about current business conditions. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 90.5 but marked the 22nd straight month the index has been below the series average of 98.1.

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Inflation cooled in October with both headline and core CPI readings coming in lower than expected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index dropped to 3.2% year-over-year, slightly lower than the 3.3% forecast. The core CPI reading came in at 4.0%, just below the 4.1% forecast.

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Travel on all roads and streets increased in September. The 12-month moving average was up 0.1% month-over-month and was up 1.4% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was unchanged MoM and up 0.2% YoY.

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, nearly one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

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The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of October, the labor force participation rate is at 62.7%, down from the previous month.

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Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for October. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 150K.

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Let's take a close look at October's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.5% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 16.5% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).

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Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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Household debt rose by $228 billion (1.34%) to $17.29 trillion in Q3 2023. The increase in debt this month was largely driven by mortgage, credit card, and student loan balances. Mortgage balances increased to $12.14 trillion, credit card balances to $1.08 trillion, and student loan balances to $1.6 trillion.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. October saw a 150,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.

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The latest employment report showed 150,000 jobs were added in October, less than the expected addition of 180,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q3 2023 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 66.0%, up 0.1% from Q2 2023.

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The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

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This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the September 29, 2023 close.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

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The median US income in 2022 was $74,580, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 233% rise over the 38-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2022 dollars, the 1984 median is $56,780, and the increase drops to 31%.

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This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2022. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell by 2.3% to $74,580. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2022 published in earlier this month gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $75,980.

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued earlier this month, with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2022.

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Our commentary on household income distribution focuses on average household incomes over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offers some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income from a different perspective with a focus on age bracket.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. We are now tracking each of the four at the following individual links:

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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