The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

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Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

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Gas prices were unchanged this past week while WTIC rose for a third straight week to its highest level in four months. As of January 13th, the price of regular and premium gas were unchanged from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.30, up 5.1% from last week.

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The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of December, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, unchanged from the previous month.

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Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.

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The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.

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Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.

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Two of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 13, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 0.54% while France's CAC 40 is the only other index in positive territory with a year to date gain of 0.20%. 

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Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

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Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).

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Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of January 3, the index was at 22.488, up 0.0.92 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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The S&P 500 fell over 1.5% on Friday following the release of December's stronger than anticipated jobs report. The index is now 4.32% below its record close from December 6th, 2024 and is down 0.71% year to date.

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The yield on the 10-year note ended January 10, 2025 at 4.77%, its highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.40%, its highest level since July 2024.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.

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Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged to start the new year, according to the preliminary January report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index inched down 0.8 points (-1.1%) from December's final reading to 74.0. The latest reading was lower than the 74.0 forecast.

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The latest employment report showed 256,000 jobs were added in December, exceeding expectations of 164,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

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A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

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This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.

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The ADP employment report revealed that 122,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in December, lower than the expected 139,000 addition. Private sector hiring has now slowed for six of the past eight months and December's reading marks the smallest addition since August.

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The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in November, while hiring and quits slowed. Vacancies increased to 8.098 million in November from October's upwardly revised level of 7.839 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.730 million vacancies and is the highest level of job openings since May.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.

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The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.

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The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,077 for an annualized real return of 10.75%.

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The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

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The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.5% from that peak.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of December 31st, it was 4.58%.

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Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the December 2024 close.

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With the Q3 GDP third estimate and the December close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 207.3%, up from the previous quarter.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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Based on the December S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.7 is 176% above its arithmetic mean, 201% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.8 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.7.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.76, down from 1.85 in November.

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At the end of December, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 187% above its long-term trend, up from November.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.3 in December, higher than November's 48.4 reading, but keeping the index in contraction territory for the 9th straight month. The manufacturing sector has now contracted for 25 of the past 26 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 48.2.

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The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.

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As of December 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

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Valid until the market close on January 1, 2025

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The November core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to its lowest level in 7 months in December. The index dropped to 36.9 from 40.2 in November, marking the third consecutive decline. The latest reading was worse than the 42.7 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a thirteenth straight month.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in December. The index decreased to 104.7 this month from November's upwardly revised 112.8. This month's reading was much lower compared to the 112.9 forecasted.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

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The U.S. economy grew above expectations during the third quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in Q3 2024, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate is above the forecasted 2.8% growth and is below the Q2 2024 GDP final estimate of 3.0%.

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FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The latest debt level is at $890.852 billion, the highest level since December 2021. Margin debt is up 9.3% month-over-month (MoM) and up 34.8% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 9.3% MoM and up 31.2% YoY.

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Industrial production was down 0.1% in November, below economist estimates. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is down 0.9%.

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Nominal retail sales in November were up 0.69% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.80% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.37% MoM and up 1.04% YoY.

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Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.

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With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.

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The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

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The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.

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Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.

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The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.

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The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.

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Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.34 in July from -0.09 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at -0.06 in July.

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Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.

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In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.396 million in July, the lowest level since June 2020. The latest data was below the forecasted rate of 1.430 million. This marks a 4.0% decrease from June and a 7.0% decline compared to one year ago.

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In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.

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In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.

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Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.

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Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.6%, unchanged from Q1 2024 and remaining at its lowest rate in over two years.

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Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?

• A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
• B) Total Mortgages
• C) Taxes Receivable
• D) Student Loans

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As of Q1 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 171% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 86% since the 2009 trough.

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As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

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AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.

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The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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