With the Q3 GDP second estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.7%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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Based on the November S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.6 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.

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The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings increased in October, reflecting more hiring. Vacancies increased to 7.744 million in October from September's downwardly revised level of 7.372 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.510 million vacancies.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.81, unchanged from 1.81 in October.

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Bitcoin's closing price climbed toward the $100,000 level this past week. BTC is currently up ~117% year-to-date. Here are the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 12/03/24.

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Quick take: At the end of November, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 183% above its long-term trend, up from October.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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In the week ending November 30th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 224,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 215,000.

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As of November 29, 2024, the 10-year note was 366 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 48.4 in November but remains in contraction territory for an eighth straight month. The index has now contracted for 24 of the past 25 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 47.7.

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Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through December 2, 2024. The U.S. S&P 500 finished first with a year-to-date gain of 27.50%. The Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished second with a year-to-date gain of 16.45%. Germany's DAX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 15.40%.

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Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024

The yield on the 10-year note ended November 29, 2024 at 4.18%, the 2-year note ended at 4.13%, and the 30-year at 4.36%.

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The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 40.2 in November from 41.6 in October. The latest reading is worse than the 44.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a twelfth straight month.

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The U.S. economy grew in line with expectations during the third quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q3 2024, according to the second estimate. The latest estimate is in line with the forecasted 2.8% growth and is below the Q2 2024 GDP final estimate of 3.0%.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® rose in November to the highest level since January. The index increased to 111.7 this month from October's upwardly revised 109.6. This month's reading was slightly lower compared to the 111.8 forecasted.

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Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 4.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.2% and the YoY was -0.6%.

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The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 15, the index was at 32.153, down 1.455 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level is at $815.368 billion, the highest level since February 2022. Margin debt is up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 28.4% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 0.2% MoM and up 25.1% YoY.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.

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Industrial production was down 0.3% in October, coming right in line with economist estimates. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is down 0.29%.

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Nominal retail sales in October were up 0.40% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.85% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.15% MoM and up 0.27% YoY.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. The latest reading was higher than the expected 0.3% monthly growth in consumer spending.

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This series has been updated to include the October release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,359, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.

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Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

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Wholesale inflation rose 0.2% last month, matching economist estimates. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.3% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.9% in September to 2.4% in October.

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Inflation rose slightly to snap a six-month cooling streak in October. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.6% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

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Let's take a close look at October's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).

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Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.

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The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.

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Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.

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With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.

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The second estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 2.95%, an acceleration from 1.41% for the Q1 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.48%, a pickup from 0.95% for the Q1 headline number.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q2 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

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The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.

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Gas prices fell to their lowest level in 6 months this past week. As of August 26th, the price of regular and premium gas decreased 7 cents and 5 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $77.42, up 5.1% from last week.

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Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -19 this month from -17 in July. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -14 and is the lowest reading since May 2020.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) unexpectedly declined to 424.5 in June, just below the all-time high of 424.8 from the previous month. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month and are up 5.1% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for August. The latest general business activity index came in at -9.7, up from -17.5 last month. This marks the highest level for the index since January 2023 but is the 28th consecutive month the index has been in contraction territory.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.

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The July release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in fourteen months. The latest reading came in higher than the 624,000 forecast. New home sales are down 10.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 668,000 in June and are up 5.6% from one year ago.

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The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index did not decline as much in August following a sharper decline last month. The composite index came in at -3, up from -13 in July. Meanwhile, the future outlook increased to 8.

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Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.34 in July from -0.09 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June and three categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at -0.06 in July.

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Travel on all roads and streets decreased in June. The 12-month moving average was down 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.40% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% MoM and up 0.78% YoY.

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In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.396 million in July, the lowest level since June 2020. The latest data was below the forecasted rate of 1.430 million. This marks a 4.0% decrease from June and a 7.0% decline compared to one year ago.

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In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The latest data fell short of the forecasted rate of 1.340 million. This marks a 6.8% decrease from June and a 16.0% decline compared to one year ago.

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In July, nominal home values increased for a 16th straight months while "real" home values declined for a 3rd consecutive month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $362,481, up 0.04% from the previous month and up 3.35% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.32% month-over-month and -1.86% year-over-year.

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Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.

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The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell into negative territory for the first time since January as manufacturing activity softened overall. In August, the index dropped to -7.0 from 13.9 in July, coming in below the forecast of 5.4. The six-month outlook decreased to 15.4.

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Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.

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Over the past two years, we have seen some of the highest inflation rates since the second of the two recessions in the early 1980s. Over the past year we have slowly made our way back down but CPI remains elevated. Core CPI is currently sitting at a level last seen in the early 1990s, while headline CPI is near levels seen in the early 2010s.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for July puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.89%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 14th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.83%.

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The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 93.7 in July. Despite being the highest level since February 2022, the latest reading marks the 31st consecutive month the index has been below the series historical average of 97.9. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 1.5.

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and nearly one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

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The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of July, the labor force participation rate is at 62.7%, up from 62.6% the previous month.

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Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.

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Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.

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The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In June, the trade deficit shrank 2.5% to -$73.11B. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -$72.50B.

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The July U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 55.0, just below the forecast of 56.0. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the 18th straight month.

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The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 38.1% from that peak.

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The ADP employment report revealed that 122K nonfarm private jobs were added in July, the smallest addition in the past six months. The latest reading came in lower than the expected 147K addition of new private jobs and marks the fourth straight month that private sector hiring has slowed.

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Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

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Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q2 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.6%, unchanged from Q1 2024 and remaining at its lowest rate in over two years.

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This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 28, 2024 close.

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Pop Quiz! Without recourse to your text, your notes, or a Google search, what line item is the largest asset in Uncle Sam's financial accounts?

• A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets
• B) Total Mortgages
• C) Taxes Receivable
• D) Student Loans

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As of Q1 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 171% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 86% since the 2009 trough.

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As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

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AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.

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The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC based on the Current Population Survey, a joint undertaking of the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes annual data from 1984 to 2022. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

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The median US income in 2022 was $74,580, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 233% rise over the 38-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2022 dollars, the 1984 median is $56,780, and the increase drops to 31%.

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This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2022. Last year the median (middle) average household income fell by 2.3% to $74,580. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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What is the value of education for household income? The Census Bureau's annual survey data for 2022 published in earlier this month gives us some interesting insights into this question. The median income for all households with a householder age 25 and older was $75,980.

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued earlier this month, with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2022.

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Our commentary on household income distribution focuses on average household incomes over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offers some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income from a different perspective with a focus on age bracket.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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