Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
The S&P Case-Shiller benchmark 20-City composite aims to measure the value of residential real estate in the following 20 major U.S. cities: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington D.C. The benchmark 20-city index fell for the first time since January 2023 in March. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.1% decline MoM, and a 4.1% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.5% and YoY was reduced to -0.3%.
The S&P Case-Shiller benchmark 10-City composite, a subset of the 20-city index, aims to measure the change in value of residential real estate in the following 10 major U.S. cities: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. The benchmark 10-city index rose for the 26th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high in March. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.0% MoM change, and a 4.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to -0.4% and YoY dropped to 0.4%.
Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:
ANALYSIS
“Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place.
“The National Composite Home Price Index posted a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, down from February’s 4.0% pace. Notably, only 0.9% of that year-over-year increase came from the past six months, indicating that most appreciation was front-loaded earlier in the year-long period. This pattern underscored a broad cooling trend in second-half 2024 home prices even as spring 2025 arrived. By comparison, the 20-City Composite rose 4.1% year over year, and the 10-City Composite climbed 4.8%, reflecting somewhat stronger annual appreciation in the largest urban markets.
“Regional price trends remained varied. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices up 8.0% year over year in March, followed by Chicago (+6.5%) and Cleveland (+5.9%). At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas barely stayed positive at +0.2% YoY, and Tampa saw prices fall 2.2%, making it the only metro to post a year-over-year decline. These results underscored how markets that experienced sharp run-ups earlier in the cycle – particularly in the Sun Belt – continued to adjust under the weight of higher mortgage rates and strained affordability.
“On a month-over-month basis, March saw an even stronger broad-based upswing. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas registered positive monthly price gains before seasonal adjustment, signaling that price increases were widespread across the country. Cleveland (+1.8%), Seattle (+1.8%), and New York (+1.5%) led all markets with the largest March increases, as the spring selling season boosted prices. By contrast, Tampa (-0.3%) and Miami (-0.2%) were the only cities to see prices slip for the month. Nationally, the U.S. National Index rose 0.8% in March (NSA) – the biggest one-month jump so far this year – but it declined 0.3% (SA) after adjusting for seasonal trends, indicating that March’s hefty gains largely aligned with typical springtime patterns.
“Looking at the market environment, affordability remained severely constrained, though it did not worsen materially in early 2025 as borrowing costs stabilized. Mortgage rates hovered in the mid-6% range throughout March, keeping monthly payment burdens near multi-decade highs relative to incomes. This continued to weigh on buyer demand, but persistent supply shortages helped counteract the headwinds. Many existing homeowners remained reluctant to sell and give up low pandemic-era mortgage rates, and new construction activity stayed limited – a combination that kept inventory levels extremely tight. The scarcity of homes for sale offset softer demand and helped support home prices, enabling a broad seasonal uptick despite the challenging affordability backdrop.
“Even as year-over-year gains slowed, U.S. home prices remained at record highs, ensuring long-term homeowners retained substantial equity,” Godec concluded. “This spring’s price resurgence illustrated that seasonal demand and tight supply could reignite price growth, but it also underscored the housing market’s continued sensitivity to mortgage rates and affordability constraints.”
