Consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April as ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation worries continue to drag down consumer attitudes. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 52.2 in April, one of the lowest levels on record. This represents an 8.4% (4.8 point) decline from March but a slightly higher reading than the 50.8 forecast. Furthermore, consumer sentiment has decreased by 32.4% (25.0 points) compared to a year ago, marking the largest annual decline since July 2022.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the U.S. with regards to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions, conducted by the University of Michigan. There are two reports released each month; a preliminary report released mid-month and a final report released at the end of the month.
Joanne Hsu, the director of surveys, made the following comments:
Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions. Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation. Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.
See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. We've highlighted the index's value at the start of each recession and included a callout to the most recent 12 months. At 52.2, the current level is below the index's value at the start of all six recessions since its inception.
To put today’s report in historical context, consumer sentiment is currently 38.3% below its average reading of 84.5 (arithmetic mean) and 37.4% below its geometric mean of 83.4, based on data dating back to 1978. The current index level is at the 1st percentile of the 568 monthly data points in this series.
This indicator is somewhat volatile, with an average monthly change of 3.1 points. The latest data shows a 4.8-point decrease from the previous month. To visualize the volatility, here’s a chart with monthly data and a three-month moving average. The bottom half of the chart includes real GDP, which allows us to evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.
Each month, the survey results highlight sentiment within each political party. To provide additional context, I’ve included a chart that shows the presidencies over our timeframe. As you can see, sentiment has fluctuated both positively and negatively under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Components
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index consists of two sub-indexes: the Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) and the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI). The CECI reflects consumers' views of their current financial situation and the overall economy, while the CEI gauges their outlook for the future.
In April, the CECI dropped to 59.8, the lowest reading since December 2022. This represents an 6.3% decline from the previous month and a 24.3% decline from a year ago. This reading was above the forecast of 56.5.
Meanwhile, the CEI fell to 47.3, the lowest reading since 1980. This represents a 10.1% decline from the prior month and a 37.8% drop from one year ago. This reading was above the forecast of 47.2.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Inflation Expectations
Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. As seen in the chart, inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month. After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents.
Other Sentiment Indicators
For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Both indexes gauge consumer attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. However, the Consumer Confidence Index is more influenced by employment and labor market conditions while the Michigan Sentiment Index is more focused on household finances and the impact of inflation.
The Conference Board index is the more volatile of the two, but the broad pattern and general trends have been remarkably similar to the Michigan index.
And finally, the prevailing mood of the Michigan survey is also similar to the mood of small business owners, as captured by the NFIB business optimism Index (monthly update here).
The next update to this report will be published on May 16th.
ETFs associated with sentiment include: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY).
Read more updates by Jen Nash
