Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February. The latest reading came in above the expected 3.95 million.
Despite the monthly increase, existing home sales are 1.2% lower than a year ago, marking the first month of year-over-year declines since September.
"Home buyers are slowly entering the market," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand."
"On a technical note, raw sales in February were down 5.2% from last year, which was a leap year with one extra day of business," Yun added. "However, after adjusting for this effect, combined with the winter seasonal factors, the momentum for home sales is flashing encouraging signs."
Background on Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales measures the monthly sales of previously owned single-family homes. It makes up a huge part of the residential real estate market, as 90% of purchased homes are previously-owned according to the National Association of Realtors. More importantly, there exists a strong correlation between purchases of existing homes and consumer spending. An increase in existing home sales can indirectly stimulate economic activity with increased consumer spending on new furnishings and appliances. Alternatively, a sustained drop in existing home sales often foreshadows a downturn in the economy.
Here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 was previously available in the St. Louis Fed's FRED repository and is now only available for the last twelve months.
Over this time frame, we clearly see the real estate bubble, which peaked in 2005 and then fell dramatically. Sales were volatile for the first year or so following the Great Recession with monthly sales as low as 3.45 million units to as high as 5.44 million units. We have seen that same volatility following the most recent recession, with sales ranging between 3.85 million units to 6.73 million units.
