Unemployment Claims Up 11K, Higher Than Expected

by Jennifer Nash, 2/6/25

Initial jobless claims measure the number of people who file for unemployment for the first time in a given week. In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,500 to 212,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending January 25, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 25 was 1,886,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,858,000 to 1,850,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,872,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,000 from 1,872,000 to 1,870,000.

Here is a closer look at the series since 2007, with a callout to the past 12 months. The four-week moving average, which smooths short-term fluctuations to highlight the overall trend, currently stands at 216,750—an increase of 4,000 from the previous week and the highest level in five weeks.

For an even shorter timeline, the chart below shows initial unemployment claims starting in 2022.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the four-week moving average is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series dating back to 1967.

Outside of the COVID spike, initial unemployment claims have never been greater than 700,000 for a given week, making the chart above less useful for identifying trends. To address this, we've adjusted the y-axis on the chart below to provide a closer view of the data, minimizing the impact of the COVID surge.

Notice the relationship between recessions and the rise in weekly unemployment claims. To no surprise, the 4-week moving average begins to rise at or before the start of a recession and and peaks around its conclusion.The headline unemployment insurance data—and the charts above—are seasonally adjusted. But what does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? The chart below highlights its extreme volatility, as shown by the green dots. The four-week moving average helps reveal the recurring seasonal patterns, such as the regular spikes in January."

Again, in this next chart we've adjusted the y-axis to get a zoomed in view of the series where the COVID spike isn't as prominent.

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data (red line), which we are currently below.

Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator.