The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
Here is an excerpt from the report summary:
Miller continues, “January was the second month in a row with all four subindexes that directly factor into the Services PMI® — Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries — in expansion territory. Slower growth in the Business Activity and New Orders indexes led to the lower composite index reading. Poor weather conditions were highlighted by many respondents as impacting business levels and production. Like last month, many panelists also mentioned preparations or concerns related to potential U.S. government tariff actions; however, there was little mention of current business impacts as a result.”
Here is a table showing the PMI's components.

Unlike its much older kin, the ISM manufacturing series, there is relatively little history for ISM's non-manufacturing data, especially for the headline composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows the non-manufacturing composite.

The more interesting and useful sub-component is the non-manufacturing business activity Index. The latest data point for January is 54.5, down from the previous month.

For a diffusion index, this can be an extremely volatile indicator, hence the addition of a six-month moving average to help us visualize the short-term trends.
Theoretically, this indicator should become more useful as the time frame of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than non-manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains our intention to keep this series on the radar.
ISM PMI Comparison: Manufacturing vs. Services
The next chart offers a comparison between the two Purchasing Managers' Indexes provided by the Institute for Supply Management. See the latest update on the Manufacturing PMI here.

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