S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Upward Trend Continues in February

Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark 20-city index rose for an twelfth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.6% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 7.3% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.2% and the YoY was reduced to 1.3%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-city composite

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.6% MoM, and a 8.1% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to 0.2% and YoY dropped to 2.0%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10-city composite

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 6.4% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to 0.4%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index national composite

Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:

ANALYSIS

“Following last year’s decline, U.S. home prices are at or near all-time highs,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6.4% in February, the fastest annual rate since November 2022. Our 10- and 20-City Composite indices are currently at all-time highs. For the third consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with four currently at all-time highs: San Diego, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and New York. On a seasonal adjusted basis, our National, 10- and 20- City Composite indices continue to break through previous all-time highs set last year.”

“Since the previous peak in prices in 2022, this marks the second time home prices have pushed higher in the face of economic uncertainty. The first decline followed the start of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle. The second decline followed the peak in average mortgage rates last October. Enthusiasm for potential Fed cuts and lower mortgage rates appears to have supported buyer behavior, driving the 10- and 20- City Composites to new highs.”

“The Northeast region, which includes Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C., ranks as the best performing market for over the last half year. As remote work benefitted smaller (and sunnier markets) in the first part of the decade, return to office may be contributing to outperformance in larger metropolitan markets in the Northeast,” according to Luke.

“San Diego has been the best performing market following the trough in home prices observed in early 2023. With Los Angeles rising for 13 consecutive months to record another new high, Southern California has outperformed its surrounding neighbors. San Francisco has dropped 12% since its peak, while Phoenix and Las Vegas have dropped 6% and 4.5%, respectively.”

“With all markets increasing on an annual basis, similar performance was observed in the monthly return data. Eighteen markets experienced uplift in February. Tampa experienced a decline of 0.3% while Seattle has the largest monthly gain of 2.3%.”