Q4 GDP Final Estimate: Real GDP at 3.4%, Above Forecast

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in Q4 2023, according to the final estimate. The latest estimate is higher than the forecasted 3.2% growth and is a slowdown from the Q3 2023 GDP final estimate of 4.9%.

Here is the opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. [Full Release]

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) measures how fast or slowly the economy is growing and measures the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is considered the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of an economy's health. The Bureaus of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases real GDP data on a monthly basis. There are 3 versions released a month apart, advance, second, and final, each incorporating data that was previously unavailable. Economists can use GDP to determine whether an economy is growing or experiencing a recession.