An Inside Look at the Q4 2023 GDP Final Estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents: personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports, and government consumption expenditures. In the latest Q4 2023 final estimate update it was reported that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4%. All four components made positive contributions.

Last 4 quarters contributions to GDP Percent Change
  • Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) contributed 0.15
    • Down from Q4 initial estimate
    • Down from Q4 second estimate
    • Down from Q3 final estimate
  • Government consumption expenditures (GCE) contributed 0.79
    • Up from Q4 initial estimate
    • Up from Q4 second estimate
    • Down from Q3 final estimate
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 2.20
    • Up from Q4 initial estimate
    • Up from Q4 second estimate
    • Up from Q3 final estimate
  • Net exports of goods and services (NEGS) contributed 0.25
    • Down from Q4 initial estimate
    • Down from Q4 second estimate
    • Up from Q3 final estimate

Over time, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) component has shown the most consistent correlation with real GDP. When PCE has been positive, GDP has usually been positive, and vice versa (although this was not the case in Q2 2022).