Moving Averages Month-End Preview: January 2024
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. Based on the 10-month simple moving average, before the close on the last day of the month, none of five Ivy portfolio ETFs are signaling "cash", down from last month's single "cash" signal.
Based on the 12-month simple moving average one of the five Ivy portfolio ETFs — Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) — are signaling "cash", unchanged from last month's final single "cash" signal.
If a position is less than 2% from a signal, it is highlighted in yellow.
Note: Our inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, for followers of a moving average strategy, the general practice is to make buy/sell decisions on the signals for each specific investment, not based on a broad index. Even if you're investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 (e.g., Vanguard's VFINX or the SPY ETF) the moving average signals for the funds will occasionally differ from the underlying index because of dividend reinvestment, which is not factored into the index closes.
The Ivy portfolio
The second of the three adjacent tables previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in the Ivy portfolio.
Check out the Ivy Portfolio ETFs here: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC).
I've also included (third table) the 12-month SMA timing signals for the Ivy ETFs in response to the many requests to include this slightly longer time frame.
After the end-of-month market close, I'll update the monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate.
These moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They're not foolproof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and have captured significant gains since the initial buy signals after the March 2009 low.