S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Continues to Trend Upward in July
Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a fifth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.9% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 0.1% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.4% and the YoY was reduced to -7.0%.
The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.8% increase MoM, and a 0.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to 0.4% and YoY dropped to -6.3%.
The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.6% increase MoM, and a 1.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -6.2%.
Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:
"U.S. home prices continued to rally in July 2023,"says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.6% in July, and now stands 1.0% above its year-ago level. Our 10- and 20-City Composites each also rose in July 2023, and likewise stand slightly above their July 2022 levels.
"We have previously noted that home prices peaked in June 2022 and fell through January of 2023, declining by 5.0% in those seven months. The increase in prices that began in January has now erased the earlier decline, so that July represents a new all-time high for the National Composite. Moreover, this recovery in home prices is broadly based. As was the case last month, 10 of the 20 cities in our sample have reached all-time high levels. In July, prices rose in all 20 cities after seasonal adjustment (and in 19 of them before adjustment).
"That said, regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, the Revenge of the Rust Belt continues. The three best-performing metropolitan areas in July were Chicago (+4.4%), Cleveland (+4.0%), and New York (+3.8%), repeating the ranking we saw in May and June. The bottom of the leader board reshuffled somewhat, with Las Vegas (-7.2%) and Phoenix (-6.6%) this month’s worst performers.
"All of the cities at all-time highs are in the Eastern or Central time zones, and with two exceptions (Dallas and Tampa), all of the cities not at all-time highs are in the Pacific or Mountain time zones. The Midwest (+3.2%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed by the Northeast (+2.3%). The West (-3.8%) and Southwest (-3.6%) remain the weakest regions.
"On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.3%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data. Although the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results."