S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Rebound Continued in March

In March, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 1.2% decrease year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.0% and the YoY was reduced to -8.5%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-city composite

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a 0.6% increase MoM, and a 0.8% decrease YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to 0.1% and YoY dropped to -8.2%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10-city composite

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 0.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -6.9%.

SP Case-Shiller Home Price Index national composite

Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:

ANALYSIS

“The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago accelerated in March 2023,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite rose by 1.3% in March, and now stands only 3.6% below its June 2022 peak. Our 10- and 20-City Composites performed similarly, with March gains of 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. On a trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is only 0.7% above its level in March 2022, with the 10- and 20-City Composites modestly negative on a year-over-year basis.

“The acceleration we observed nationally was also apparent at a more granular level. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in March (versus in 12 in February), and in all 20 price gains accelerated between February and March. Seasonally adjusted data showed 15 cities with rising prices in March (versus 11 in February), with acceleration in 14 cities.

“One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to lie in its stark regional differences. Miami’s 7.7% year-over-year gain made it the best-performing city for the eighth consecutive month. Tampa (+4.8%) continued in second place, narrowly ahead of bronze medalist Charlotte (+4.7%). The farther west we look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the league table. It’s unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2%) remains the weakest.

“Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end. That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”