S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Continued Decline in January

This article was originally written by Doug Short. From 2016-2022, it was improved upon and updated by Jill Mislinski. Starting in January 2023, AP Charts pages will be maintained by Jennifer Nash at Advisor Perspectives/VettaFi.

With this morning's release of the January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month (MoM), higher than the Investing.com forecast of -0.5%, and a 2.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -1.1% and the YoY was reduced to -4.8%.

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index saw a -0.4% decrease MoM, and a 2.5% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM dropped to -1.0% and YoY dropped to -4.9%.

The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a -0.2% decrease MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.9% and YoY fell to -3.7%.

Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:


“2023 began as 2022 had ended, with U.S. home prices falling for the seventh consecutive month,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite declined by 0.5% in January, and now stands 5.1% below its peak in June 2022. On a trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is only 3.8% ahead of its level in January 2022, a result also reflected in our 10- and 20-City Composites (both +2.5% year-over-year).

“January’s market weakness was broadly based. Before seasonal adjustment, 19 cities registered a decline; the seasonally adjusted picture is a bit brighter, with only 15 cities declining. With or without seasonal adjustment, most cities’ January declines were less severe than their December counterparts.

“Miami (+13.8% year-over-year) was the best performing city in January, extending its winning streak to six consecutive months. Tampa (+10.5%) and Atlanta (+8.4%) continued in second and third place, with Charlotte (+8.1%) not far behind. At the other end of the scale, one of the most interesting aspects of January’s report is the continued weakness in home prices on the West Coast, as San Diego and Portland joined San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory. It’s therefore unsurprising that the Southeast (+10.2%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (-1.5%) continues as the weakest.

“Financial news this month has been dominated by ructions in the commercial banking industry, as some institutions’ risk management functions proved unequal to the rising level of interest rates. Despite this, the Federal Reserve remains focused on its inflation-reduction targets, which suggest that rates may remain elevated in the near-term. Mortgage financing and the prospect of economic weakness are therefore likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”