Headline Durable Goods Orders Down 0.2% in August

The latest new orders number at -0.2% month-over-month (MoM) was better than the Investing.com -0.4% estimate. The series is up 8.8% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.2% MoM and up 6.1% YoY.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, down two consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $272.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed a 0.1 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $92.0 billion. Download full PDF

Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 0.4% MoM and up 8.5% YoY.

For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.

Durable Goods Components

The next chart shows the year-over-year percent change in Durable Goods. We've highlighted the value at recession starts and the latest value for this metric.

Core Durable Goods