Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Growth Decelerates in September

The latest index came in at 1, down 10 from last month, indicating "slow" expansion in September and its lowest since July 2020. The future outlook fell to 9. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decelerate in September, but growth remained slightly positive. Expectations for future activity remained moderate (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Monthly survey price indexes saw slight growth from the previous month. Price indexes were still above year-ago levels for most firms, and most firms expected further price increases over the next six months.

The month-over-month composite index was 1 in September, the lowest composite reading since July 2020, and down from 3 in August and from 13 in July (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The slower pace in factory growth in September was driven by decreased activity at durable goods plants, especially electrical, furniture, nonmetallic mineral, primary metal, fabricated metal, and transportation equipment manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes increased in September, except for supplier delivery time, materials inventories, and finished goods inventories which continued to decrease. Year-over-year factory indexes also decreased again in September, and the composite index fell from 36 to 30. The future composite index eased from 10 to 9 in September.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes fell to 9.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.