Headline Durable Goods Orders Mostly Unchanged in July
The latest new orders number at -0.02% month-over-month (MoM) was worse than the Investing.com 0.6% estimate. The series is up 10.8% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.3% MoM and up 7.1% YoY.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $273.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.2 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Transportation equipment, down following three consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $93.0 billion. Download full PDF
Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 0.4% MoM and up 8.5% YoY.
For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.
The next chart shows the year-over-year percent change in Durable Goods. We've highlighted the value at recession starts and the latest value for this metric.