Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Moderate Growth in July

The latest index came in at 13, up 1 from last month, indicating "moderate" expansion in July. The future outlook rose to 26. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Tenth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in July. Expectations for future activity increased after dropping in June (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Monthly and annual survey price indexes fell to their lowest levels in over a year, and indexes for price expectations also moderated.

The month-over-month composite index was 13 in July, up from 12 in June, and down from 23 in May (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. In July, the slower pace in factory growth than earlier in the year was driven by decreased in activity in electrical equipment, electronic products, primary metal, chemical manufacturing, and food manufacturing. Month-over-month indexes were mostly positive in July. Indexes for production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog increased from June’s readings, while inventory and supplier delivery time indexes decreased slightly. Year-over-year factory indexes increased, to a composite index of 46. The supplier delivery time index increased slightly compared to a year ago, along with the materials inventory. However, indexes for finished goods and new orders for exports declined slightly compared to a year ago. The future composite index was 26 in July, rebounding from 10 in June. More firms expected increases in production, shipments, new orders, backlog of orders, employment, capital expenditures, supplier delivery times, and materials inventories. [Full report here]

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes rose to 26.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.