The Big Four: Industrial Production Down 0.2% in June

Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the June data for Industrial Production.


Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:

The Latest Indicator Data

This morning's report on Industrial Production for June shows a 0.2% decrease month-over-month, which was worse than the Investing.com consensus of 0.1%. The year-over-year change is at 4.16%, down from last month's YoY increase. Annual revisions were made.