PCE Price Index: October Headline at 5% YoY

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays for October was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.63% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 5.05% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.12%, above the Fed's 2% target rate.

The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020.