First Look at November: ADP Says 190K New Nonfarm Private Jobs
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP November estimate of 190K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over October's 235K.
The 190K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 185K for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 200K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number) and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%.
Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:
“The labor market continues to grow at a solid pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Notably, manufacturing added the most jobs the industry has seen all year. As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example. There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.”
Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.
Here's our list of monthly employment updates: