Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

The Good News Economy

I see some major problems coming in the 2020s (and perhaps a bit sooner), but I also see a lot of good things happening right now. The economic recovery, while still weak by historic standards, is gaining some momentum that ought to carry it forward for another year or two, assuming (as I perhaps naïvely do) that we can put this trade war thing to rest. That’s good news because it buys us time to prepare for worse times, but it’s also just plain good news.

Risks Bubbling Below the Surface?

The recent pickup in market volatility, some choppy action by U.S. stocks, and notable weakness in emerging market stocks have reinforced our belief that we may be at or near an inflection point in economic fundamentals and/or market character. We never suggest trying to time the market in the short-term, but do believe discipline around strategies like rebalancing and diversification is essential at this stage in the cycle. Risks are rising.

Turkey’s Month of Reckoning

This week, the NT Economic team covers the following topics:
- Turkey’s Troubles
- Should countries try to control capital?
- Labor markets work best when there are no guarantees

Investing for the Long Term: A Conversation with Marc Lichtenfeld

My good friend Marc Lichtenfeld from the Oxford Club has always been savvy in following such strategies. I invite you to learn from his investment journey in this special Q&A.

MLPs: A Light at the End of the Pipeline

The master limited partnership (MLP) asset class has experienced considerable volatility since 2014, with many individual securities trading well off previous highs. However, the Invesco Real Estate team believes there has been a dislocation in MLP pricing, resulting in value and opportunity in the space.

United Nations: Creating a New Hub for Sustainable Investment Deals

The UN recently wrapped up its annual High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, which brings together the 193 Member States to explore how they plan to reach the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The Likely Trade War Fallout in Asia

Dispute could be a setback for productivity, affecting consumers globally.

Don’t be Fooled by the Rally: Turkey Remains Under Pressure

The crisis in Turkey is rapidly evolving, with new developments emerging every day. Turkish assets sold off significantly from August 8 to 13, before experiencing a short covering rally beginning on August 14. Perhaps the selloff was overdone, or perhaps not. Either way, the trajectory for Turkey has not changed.

Iran Sanctions and Potential Responses: Part III

The Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal and plans to implement sanctions on the country in two phases. In Part I, we introduced this topic and covered the first two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting the nuclear program and projecting power. Last week, we covered the threat to the Strait of Hormuz.

Talking Worried, but Being Complacent

Every summer for the past several decades, I have been organizing lunches for serious investors who spend at least part of their vacation time in eastern Long Island. Those attending include hedge fund wizards, real estate titans, corporate chiefs, thoughtful academics and a few others.

Can Turkey Rewrite the Crisis-Management Rules?

Rather than sticking with the approach taken by numerous other countries – including Argentina earlier this year – by raising interest rates and seeking some form of IMF support, Turkey has shunned both in a very public manner. Unless it changes course, the government risks much wider damage – and not just in Turkey.

Will Chinese Renminbi Destabilize Markets as Trade Wars Escalate?

The trade war between Washington and Beijing has tipped China’s currency onto a path of destabilization. If hostilities escalate, China may let its renminbi (RMB) fall further. For investors, that could mean more volatility and tighter financial conditions.

Factor Exposure: Smart Beta ETFs vs Mutual Funds

Do Active Managers Provide Higher Factor Exposure than ETFs? Investors can express factor views via smart beta ETFs or mutual funds. Some mutual funds offer higher factor exposure than smart beta ETFs. Given higher fees, strong views on expected factor performance are required.

Buy! Bye! BYE! Real Estate in the World's Most Expensive City

London, a regular on the world’s most expensive city list, is going through the doldrums.

Munis in Focus: Preparing for Late-Cycle Certainties

Munis may offer U.S. taxpayers key benefits as they contemplate the end of the economic expansion.