Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Interesting Times In Asia

"May you live in interesting times" is a traditional Chinese curse disguised as a blessing. Looking at emerging Asia today, it can certainly be said that it is both cursed and blessed.

Unprecedented! Or Maybe Not?

Both political uncertainty and Fed policy changes could contribute to increased volatility, but solid economic and earnings growth—both in the United States and globally—should help the bull market to continue. We suggest looking past the political rhetoric for the most part and focusing on economic developments and the long-term stability the United States provides. Globally, we’re seeing improving growth, but China is a concern that bears watching and emphasizes the need for a globally diversified portfolio.

Five Things You Need to Know from this Week (Look What Gold Just Did!)

It’s been a whirlwind week. After attending two big conferences, I landed in Vancouver today where I’ll be presenting at the International Metal Writers Conference. Markets continue to close at record highs, even as political uncertainty remains and the threat of terrorism looms large over Western nations. On Monday, gold flashed a bullish signal we haven’t seen in over a year. There’s much to talk about! Below are five things you need to know from the week now behind us.

The Great Reset, Part Two

Last week I discussed what I think will be the fallout from the Great Reset, when the massive amounts of global (and especially government) debt and the bubble in government promises will have to be dealt with. I think we’ll see a period of great volatility in the markets. I offered a solution for dealing with this complexity and uncertainty in the markets by diversifying trading strategies. But that diversification must reflect a rethinking of Modern Portfolio Theory, including a significant reshaping of valuations in asset classes. We’ll deal with those topics today.

Household Debt Hits New Record High, Stocks Stumble

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week that US household debt reached a new all-time high in the 1Q of this year. The new report also included some troubling internal metrics, not only on the overall household debt levels but also with regard to the level of delinquencies.

Demystifying the Amazon Valuation Dilemma

Amazon: the Valuation Dark Side It is no secret that Amazon (AMZN) has been a disruptive force, especially relating to the retail sector. On the other hand, the company is also an enigma to the value focused fundamental investor such as yours truly.

Fed Minutes: Cap and Trade

The minutes of the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released Wednesday, provided (as expected) more information on the committee’s thinking about how and when to start the policy of normalizing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.

US Equity Correction? Prepare, Don’t Panic

Political noise emanating from Washington has prompted fresh concerns that a US equity market correction may be looming. But have no fear: the market often takes a leg down, only to bounce back quickly.

Here’s Why I Think Renewable Energy Is Finally Living up to Hype

Global markets have steadily been adding renewables such as wind and solar to their energy mix for several years now, but according to a handful of new reports, 2016 might have been the tipping point.

Brazil’s Political Bumps

Just when Brazil’s economy seemed to be turning a corner, a new political scandal has caused a strong market reaction, sending Brazil’s stock market into a tailspin. President Michel Temer, who came into office following the impeachment of former President Dilma Rouseff due to a corruption scandal, is now caught up in a corruption scandal of his own

Doing the Math: How Many 529 Plans Do You Need for Your Family?

What to consider when saving for multiple children’s college educations.

Volatility Is Low—But Not As Low As You Think

Stock market volatility is unusually low these days. Does that mean investors are complacent? We don’t think so. In fact, some risk indicators suggest market participants may be less relaxed than they seem.

Three Geopolitical Shifts to Watch this Summer, a Q&A with Peter Zeihan: Part 2

We met with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan for a quarterly update right before the French presidential elections. In addition to calling Macron’s win, Peter outlined the three most important geopolitical shifts for US financial advisors to watch in the coming months.

The Forecast for Interest Rates is Changing

Is it time to add convertible bonds?

Mean Reversion Strategy: Bet Against It at Your Peril

Russell Investments’ Chief Investment Strategist, Erik Ristuben explores the importance and power of mean reversion in this latest post.