Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

The Biggest Global Tax Break Ever Bubbles Up from Texas Oil Industry

Oil prices continue to remain low, however, thanks in large part to the ingenuity of Texas fracking companies. As I told Liz, this has served as a multibillion-dollar “peace dividend” that has mostly helped net importing markets, including “Chindia”—China and India combined, where 40 percent of the world’s population lives—Japan and the European Union.

The Tipping Point for Central Banks

In the financial arena, investors often blame unfortunate outcomes on officials within the world’s central banks.

Why Gold-Mining Stocks Could Regain Some Luster

Here, Franklin Equity Group's Steve Land digs deeper into industry fundamentals that he thinks make for an attractive longer-term investment case for gold or gold stocks

A Statistical Take On The Fourth Quarter

Technicians are fond of saying that the most bullish thing a market can do is to make a new high. This simple study takes a more nuanced view, finding that the sustainability of a new high is related to its underlying technical, monetary, and economic underpinnings. On that score, this market—as overvalued as it may be—is currently “thrice-blessed,” and we expect even higher highs in the fourth quarter.

Market Lessons from the Gridiron

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback, from the BlackRock Fundamental Fixed Income Team, look to the investment lessons that can be derived from Super Bowl 51 odds making, and particularly that when judged appropriately, prices can contain more valuable information than does “the news.”

What Does QE in Reverse Mean for the US Economy?

The long-anticipated unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) in the US is set to begin, just as the Fed’s leadership faces a wave of turnover. We think a strong foundation should keep steady US economic growth on track.

Global Economic Perspective: September

The issues that have dominated news cycles in recent weeks should not obscure the robust underlying fundamentals of the US economy, in our view. Though some short-term weather-related disruption is possible, the economy seems to be maintaining its path of moderately strong growth, aided by healthy contributions from consumer spending and business investment.

The Impossible Math of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve officially signaled the beginning of its balance sheet run-off. At this point, that’s old news. But, today the Fed released the Z.1 Flow of Funds, which adds to the intrigue of the balance sheet run-off. Why?

A Case for Multi-Asset Investing: The Low-Return Imperative

The data suggests that future market returns are likely to be lower than in the past. Can a multi-asset investing approach help make up the difference?

Could Driverless Cars Benefit Your Portfolio down the Road?

Science fiction is real. In October of last year, a self-driving semi in Colorado carried over 2,000 cases of beer from Fort Collins to a distribution center in Colorado Springs — a journey of over 130 miles. While there was a professional driver on board, he monitored the trip from the sleeping berth for most of the journey and never took the controls.

Fed Balance Sheet Normalization: Signed, Sealed, Delevered

Going into today’s important Federal Reserve meeting (with a press conference and an update to the economic projections, aka the “dot plot,” along with the usual statement), we at PIMCO along with most market participants expected the Fed to announce formally the start of balance sheet reduction this fall, perhaps in October. And that’s exactly what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did.

Global Vision Enhances Equity Insight

Investors all over the world often prefer to stay in their home markets. But at what cost? Going global can open up a world of choice to help improve a portfolio’s equity risk and return profile.

The Fed’s Balancing (Sheet) Act

The Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting played out largely as expected, as US monetary policymakers left the central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged. The Fed did clarify when it would begin to unwind its hefty balance sheet, and updated its economic forecasts and interest-rate projections.

The Coming Bear Market?

The US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. That doesn't mean that a bear market is imminent, but it does amount to a stark warning against complacency.

High Yield Market Update

The U.S. high yield bond market has grown substantially to around $1.3 trillion today. At the same time, the global high yield market has become more geographically diverse. North America’s share of the market has fallen from 87.1% in 2005 to 62.6% in 2016.