In the latest Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey delivered a powerful reminder to investors: stop reacting to the 30-second news cycle and start thinking long-term.
With financial markets whipsawing on every tweet and press release, Maharrey urged listeners to step back, take a breath, and consider the big picture — particularly on the issues of debt, inflation, and de-dollarization.
Quoting the iconic line from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off — “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it” — Maharrey reflected on the rapid acceleration of the information age. He contrasted today's instant news culture with the slower, more deliberate pace of past decades, when news was limited to evening broadcasts or morning papers.
“People can’t think strategically anymore,” he warned. “They just react to the latest thing they saw on X.”
Whiplash Headlines and Reactionary Investing
Maharrey illustrated the perils of short-term thinking with a recent market event: Donald Trump’s announcement of a temporary U.S.–China trade truce.
Within a day, stock markets soared, gold prices dropped by over $100, and major analysts like J.P. Morgan retracted U.S. recession predictions.
Yet, by Tuesday, optimism had already replaced Friday’s recession panic.
“Do you really think tariffs are the only reason we’re heading toward a recession?” Maharrey asked. “This is a debt-riddled bubble economy waiting for a pin.”
Debt: A System Under Pressure
The national debt recently surpassed $36 trillion, and despite an April budget surplus, the FY2025 deficit sits at $1.05 trillion — 22.8% higher than the same period in FY2024. Government spending hit $591.77 billion in April, up 4.4% year-over-year, and total FY2025 spending is up 8.9%.
Maharrey dismantled social media claims that tariffs had “fixed the deficit,” reminding listeners that April typically shows a surplus due to Tax Day. “We don’t have a revenue problem,” he emphasized. “We have a spending problem.”
On the consumer side, 11.5% of credit card balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest in five years. The aggregate delinquency rate has risen to 3.6%, even as credit card interest rates remain near record highs. Corporate debt distress is also mounting, with bankruptcy filings returning to pandemic-era levels.
Inflation: Not Dead, Just Delayed
Despite cooling CPI numbers — both headline and core CPI rose just 0.2% in the latest report — Maharrey cautioned that inflation is far from over. “The CPI might look tame, but that still annualizes to 2.4% — nearly half a point above target.”
The real issue, Maharrey explained, is monetary expansion. During the pandemic, the Fed injected nearly $5 trillion through quantitative easing — on top of $4 trillion during the 2008 financial crisis. Add in two decades of artificially low interest rates, and you get what Maharrey called “monetary malfeasance.”
“Increasing the money supply is inflation,” he said. “The CPI is just one symptom.”
Even as the Fed keeps talking tough, Maharrey pointed out that the money supply has been rising again for nearly a year, suggesting that more inflation is baked into the system — whether it’s visible in CPI today or not.
De-Dollarization: A Slow-Moving Earthquake
Maharrey’s third major theme was de-dollarization — the gradual erosion of the dollar’s global dominance.
“No, we’re not waking up tomorrow to a world without the dollar,” he said. “But make no mistake: it’s happening.”
Central banks, especially in Asia, are buying gold and reducing dollar reserves. The trend, Maharrey warned, threatens the foundation of the U.S. government’s borrowing power.
“The only reason the U.S. can borrow and spend at these levels is because the world demands dollars. If that demand drops, those dollars come back home — and that means more inflation.”
He cited analysts from VanEck, who noted that gold’s rise amid relative dollar strength and no major crisis is an unprecedented signal. They argue this is driven by loss of trust in the dollar following U.S. financial sanctions on Russia and decades of monetary manipulation.
Even a modest shift away from the dollar, Maharrey explained, could spiral into a “death spiral” of dollar devaluation, forcing higher domestic inflation and potentially triggering a full-blown currency crisis.
Bond Bear Market Looming? Jim Grant Thinks So
Referencing a recent interview with Jim Grant, Maharrey reiterated Grant’s forecast of a secular bear market in bonds — a long-term shift that could span decades. If correct, this trend would push average interest rates significantly higher, crippling the U.S. government's ability to service its debt.
Interest payments on the national debt are already surpassing spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and national defense, and are second only to Social Security. With over $1 trillion in annual interest costs, even a modest rise in average rates could be catastrophic.
Final Thoughts: Think Long-Term, Buy Gold Strategically
Maharrey closed with a strong warning against knee-jerk reactions to headlines — especially when it comes to precious metals investing. “Sell-offs are buying opportunities,” he said. “This gold bull run still has legs.”
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