Trump’s Golden Dome Could Spark the Biggest Defense Boom in Decades

From “Star Wars” to Golden Dome

The similarities between Reagan’s SDI and Trump’s Golden Dome are obvious, but there are some notable differences. Among the biggest is that much of the technology required for Star Wars was mostly theoretical in the 1980s, whereas today, it’s a different story.

Think about it: SpaceX has launched hundreds of satellites into low Earth orbit, and artificial intelligence (AI) now drives battlefield decisions. Next-generation, hypersonic missiles, which can travel at five times the speed of sound (Mach 5) and evade radar detection, have fundamentally changed how we think about speed and defense.

The private sector is stepping up in a major way. According to an exclusive Reuters report, SpaceX, Palantir and Anduril are collaborating on a bid to build a satellite constellation capable of tracking and targeting hostile missiles. This proposal envisions 400 to 1,000 satellites orbiting the Earth, forming the backbone of the Golden Dome’s custody layer, which provides sensing functions.

These aren’t just science fiction concepts anymore. They’re technologically feasible and potentially deployable within the decade.

Other major players like Boeing are pitching existing assets like the X-37B spaceplane, while defense startups such as Epirus, Ursa Major and Armada are also positioning for a role. The Pentagon has reportedly received interest from over 180 companies, Reuters says.

Big Bets, Big Risks

As exciting as it all sounds, I’m keeping a level head. There are real risks involved. For one, the price tag will be enormous. Some estimates suggest the Golden Dome project could cost hundreds of billions of dollars, especially if it includes ground- and space-based layers. The initial engineering work alone could cost between $6 billion and $10 billion, according to SpaceX estimates.

There’s also the issue of reliability. Space-based interceptors need to work instantly under extreme conditions, years after being deployed. That’s a high bar to clear, even for today’s most advanced aerospace companies.

Trade Tensions and Supply Chain Pressure

Meanwhile, we’re dealing with a complex global trade environment. Earlier this month, President Trump imposed the largest tariff increases in U.S. history, sending the Bloomberg Economics’ Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) Index to a record high.

While defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman have largely maintained their 2025 guidance, they’re not immune to global supply chain disruptions or rising material costs.

Even with the noise, I believe the aerospace and defense sector remains one of the most resilient segments of the U.S. economy, supported by rising demand for sophisticated weaponry amid the war in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

What It Means for Investors

Like many other areas of the economy, national defense is entering a transformational era. Just as Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System led to a generation of economic growth, the build-out of next-gen missile defense could usher in massive public-private partnerships and foster incredible innovation.

The Golden Dome initiative is still in its early stages, but the commitment is real. Lawmakers are moving quickly. In February, Senators Kevin Cramer and Dan Sullivan introduced the IRON DOME Act, which would allocate nearly $19.5 billion in fiscal 2026 for missile defense technologies, including $900 million for space-based systems. And that’s just a down payment.

Investors, I think, would do well to watch this space—pun intended.

Index Summary

• The major market indices finished up this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.48%. The S&P 500 Stock Index rose 4.55%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 6.73%. The Russell 2000 small capitalization index rose 3.85% this week.
• The Hang Seng Composite rose 3.15% this week; while Taiwan was up 2.46% and the KOSPI climbed 2.53%.
• The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell 7 basis points to 4.256%

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was Grupo Sureste, up 10.6%. According to Bank of America, General Dynamics (GD) reported first quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $3.66, beating consensus of $3.48. The beat was driven by revenue growth and margin expansion at Aerospace and Technologies.
• UBS believes the direct shock from higher U.S. tariffs should be rather limited for China Express, given its little trade exposure. Consumption downtrading, coupled with more support from both governments and e-commerce platforms (i.e., promote domestic sales for cross-border merchants), may translate into more parcels.
• Tracking International Consolidated Airlines’ daily share purchase releases, Morgan Stanley notes that its rate of buyback is roughly 1.8x what it was at the start of the year. This increase has coincided with the completion of €350 million of its €1 billion program, as well as its weaker share price. Morgan Stanley estimates the group has bought back €270 million of its stock since February and is therefore roughly a quarter through its €1bn program. If this rate continues, it will have executed the €1bn in six months, with the initial release indicating it will take up to 12 months.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Alaska Air, down 7.2%. According to Bank of America, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian airlines. IndiGo should be able to manage the incremental two-to-three-hour round-trip flying times on 6% of its capacity without any real disruptions to flights operated by flexing spare utilization hours in its existing fleet. However, the longer flying times could add incremental 5-10% unit cost from additional variable cost including fuel burn.
• With current spot/contract ocean rates 70%/30% above 2019 levels and East–West air freight rates 50-70% above, UBS believes the industry is entering the downturn from a position of excess profitability driven mainly by the Red Sea disruption.
• In Australia domestic, market fares are currently tracking down 5% year-over-year (Qantas -3%, Jetstar -5%) while market capacity is down 4% year-over-year (Qantas -4%, Jetstar +4%). In Australia International, market fares declined 2% year-over-year on 6% industry capacity growth, reports UBS.

Opportunities

• Archer Aviation and United Airlines announced plans for their proposed NYC air-taxi network that would connect Manhattan with surrounding airports utilizing Archer’s four-passenger eVTOL aircraft. The Companies noted they aim to utilize the city’s existing aviation infrastructure, establishing vertiports at airports as well as helipads within the area, according to Morgan Stanley.
• UPS announced its own $0.29 per pound surcharge on shipments from China, Hong Kong, and Macau. This surcharge does not yet have an end date. The fees are aimed at a potential uptick in packages coming into the U.S. before the de minimis exemptions no longer applies to items from China and Hong Kong on May 2, reports Morgan Stanley.
• Travel bookings by Canadian businesses nearly recovered in March, down just 1% from last year, following a 10% decline in February, according to Corporate Traveler, a subsidiary of Flight Centre Travel Group. Outbound travel for Canadian businesses to the U.S. is almost back to last year’s levels.

Threats

• UBS’s fare monitor shows that fare growth or bookings in March decelerated for nearly all airlines. That said, the deceleration was most pronounced for American and Southwest. The sequential deceleration in March was most pronounced at American and Southwest to the tune of -500 bps to -600 bps.
• According to Bank of America, port of LA volumes may decline sequentially in April to 700,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), from 800,000 in February/March (down ~9% year-year, from 774k in April 2024), and down from a 900,000 TEU average in July ’24-Jan ’25. Given tariff uncertainty and reduced forward bookings from China, early bookings for May 2025 suggest the Port of LA could post sub-700,000 TEUs.
• Alaska introduced June quarter EPS guidance of $1.15 to $1.65, materially below consensus of $2.38, reports Goldman. Unit revenue (“RASM”) is expected to be flat to down low-single digits year-over-year (versus consensus +2.6%) Alaska is suspending its FY 2025 EPS guidance of $5.75+ due to the current level of macroeconomic uncertainty and its impact on demand.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strength

• American Express posted better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of the year. Similarly, Adidas reported a significant rise in operating profit during the same period, driven by double-digit growth across all markets and sales channels.
• In April 2025, U.S. manufacturing activity improved with the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rising to 50.7, signaling expansion for the fourth straight month. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI also ticked up to 48.7, its highest level in over two years, though it remains in contraction territory. Both regions show signs of resilience despite ongoing economic challenges.
• Paradise, gamining company that operates casino facilities in South Korea and Kenya, was the top-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury sector, posting a 9.46% increase over the past five days. Paradise Co. reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue and earnings per share surpassing analyst forecasts.

Weaknesses

• Kering reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the first quarter, driven primarily by a significant decline at its flagship brand, Gucci. Gucci’s revenue dropped by 25% year-over-year, underscoring ongoing challenges for the luxury fashion house. Following the announcement, which came after European markets closed, Kering’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) fell 3.75% on Wednesday.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined by 8.4% from the previous month, falling to 52.2% in the latest reading. This marks a notable drop in consumer confidence, suggesting increased concerns about the economic outlook, inflation or other financial pressures among households.
• Shiseido, Japanise manufacturer and distributor of beauty products, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, dropping by 8.5%. Shares dropped after CEO Ron Gee resigned on Monday.

Opportunities

• Tesla reported disappointing first-quarter results, missing expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. However, the company highlighted some positive developments, including a notable improvement in free cash flow to $664 million and strong growth in its energy storage segment. CEO Elon Musk also indicated that he plans to step back from his political engagements, including his involvement with the White House, to refocus on Tesla’s operations. His departure from the political arena could take place as early as mid-May.

• A rare 1995 Ferrari F50, originally owned by Ralph Lauren, will be auctioned at RM Sotheby’s Monterey Auction in August 2025. With only 349 ever produced, the F50 is a highly desired luxury car. This model is expected to be sold in a range of $6.5 to $7.5 million, showing how Ferrari stores value and can be a strong long-term investment.
• President Donald Trump has announced plans to significantly reduce the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. While the exact reduction has not been specified, reports suggest the tariffs could be lowered to between 50% and 65%.

Threats

• Tesla vehicles and facilities have recently been subjected to a series of vandalism incidents across Canada, particularly in Ontario. In March 2025, over 80 Teslas at a Hamilton dealership were damaged, including deep scratches and punctured tires, while a Model S was set ablaze in London, Ontario, causing significant damage. These acts are part of a broader wave of protests and vandalism linked to opposition against CEO Elon Musk’s political affiliations, notably his role in the Department of Government Efficiency.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in 2024, citing escalating trade tensions and century-high U.S. tariffs as key factors. Growth is expected to rise modestly to 3.0% in 2026, though this remains below historical averages. The IMF warns that continued trade conflicts and policy uncertainty could further dampen economic activity and increase financial market volatility.
• Nearly 40% of young Americans are increasingly concerned about their financial well-being, with about two in five people under 30 saying they are either struggling to make ends meet or managing with limited financial security. This finding comes from a recent survey of 2,096 adults aged 18 to 29, conducted by Harvard’s Institute of Politics between March 14 and 25, 2025.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was coffee, rising 7.23%. Arabica coffee futures jumped to a seven-week high above $4 per pound as concerns over a smaller Brazilian crop—driven by low rainfall—and Central American shipping delays fueled supply fears. Meanwhile, cocoa prices surged toward their biggest weekly gain since December amid insufficient rainfall in key West African growing regions, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese copper smelters boosted output to a record high last month, as rising prices for by-products including gold and sulphuric acid eased pressure on margins, explains Bloomberg. Smelters in the world’s biggest copper producer have struggled with low profitability and pressure for production cuts after their rapid expansion outpaced global ore supplies, pushing processing fees below zero.

• In response to President Trump’s 2025 Executive Order to boost domestic mineral production, the Federal Permitting Council has fast-tracked a first wave of high-priority projects, offering greater transparency and faster approvals via the Federal Permitting Dashboard. Key beneficiaries include Rio Tinto (Resolution Copper), Perpetua Resources (Stibnite Gold), Warrior Met Coal, Jindalee Resources (McDermitt Lithium), Standard Lithium, Soda Springs Phosphate, U.S. Critical Materials Corp., Lisbon Valley Mining, Albemarle Corp., and Michigan Potash & Salt Co.—a clear move to reshore critical mineral supply chains and reduce foreign dependence.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing commodity for the week was natural gas, dropping 9.31%. European natural gas prices fell nearly 9% on the week, hitting their lowest levels since July as increased LNG arrivals and weaker Asian demand boosted supply confidence. Storage levels in Europe continue to climb ahead of the next heating season, while easing tensions in the U.S.-China trade war could reshape global energy demand and spot market dynamics, Bloomberg reports.
• Halliburton Co., the world’s largest provider of hydraulic fracturing services, fell sharply after posting first-quarter results that gave investors little insight into the company’s outlook amid lower crude prices. The dominant North American oilfield services provider had first-quarter revenue of $5.4 billion, the lowest since 2022, according to a statement Tuesday.
• Wheat futures are headed for their biggest weekly drop in a month, down nearly 3%, as beneficial rains across the U.S. plains eased supply concerns and weak export sales weighed on demand. Meanwhile, soybean oil surged to its highest level since December 2023 on improved demand outlooks, bolstered by a potential U.S.-India trade agreement, Bloomberg reports.

Opportunities

• South Korea’s leading presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung, has positioned trade negotiations with the U.S. as a top priority for his first 100 days, signaling a strong desire to deepen economic ties and restore trust strained by recent tariff tensions. His emphasis on pragmatic diplomacy and investor-friendly reforms—including corporate governance enhancements and stock market revitalization—underscores South Korea’s potential to reemerge as a stable and strategic trade partner for the U.S. in a volatile global landscape, reports Bloomberg.
• Australia’s ruling Labor party will create a critical mineral reserve if it’s re-elected in an upcoming ballot, seeking to secure supplies of the crucial materials as global trade headwinds grow.
• According to Reuters, Elliott Management has urged BP to boost its free cash flow to $20 billion by 2027 from around $8 billion last year through significant spending cuts and cost reductions, a source familiar with the situation said. Elliott has met with more than 20 investors who are among BP’s largest active shareholders, the source said.

Threats

• According to reports from AP News and The Washington Post, China has warned South Korea that any trade agreements with the United States perceived as undermining Chinese interests would trigger retaliatory measures from Beijing. This places South Korea in a difficult position, as it must decide whether to deepen economic ties with the U.S.—its key security ally—or risk economic backlash from China, its largest trading partner.
• China sharply reduced imports of many U.S. commodities last month, in some cases to zero, as the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies intensified. Among the worst affected were purchases of liquefied natural gas and wheat, which both fell to nothing in March, according to Chinese customs data released on Sunday. The U.S. accounted for 17% of China’s wheat imports last year, and 5% of its LNG. China imposed retaliatory duties of 10% to 15% on U.S. energy products in February, and at a similar level on agricultural goods in March, explains Bloomberg.

• Gold is outperforming copper by the most in years. While this divergence has historically foreshadowed U.S. recessions, this time it may also mean copper still has further to fall. The combination of safe-haven flows into gold and muted industrial demand for copper often points to investor anxiety over growth risks. But this time around, it is bullion that is leading the divergence, Bloomberg says, which suggests copper may be the next asset to reflect the market’s concerns.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the best performer for the week was TRUMP, rising 85%.
• Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether Holdings and SoftBank group are in talks to form a $3 billion vehicle to absorb billions of dollars in cryptocurrency. Tether will contribute $1.5 billion of Bitcoin, while Bitfinex and SoftBank plan to put in $600 million and $900 million of the cryptocurrency, respectively, according to Bloomberg.
• Bitcoin rose about 3% after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, easing concerns over the central bank’s autonomy.

Weaknesses

• Of the cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap, the worst performer for the week was Dexe, down 4.78%.
• A group of investors in the failed crypto lender Celsius Network are urging a federal judge to impose the highest possible punishment on founder Alex Mashinsky, Bloomberg reports, who admitted to fraud in connection with the company’s 2022 collapse. Over 200 investors submitted statements to the court, with many calling for Mashinsky to spend the rest of his life in prison.
• Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill to block investors from using Puerto Rico as a cryptocurrency tax haven, which is unlikely to advance without Republican support. The bill aims to close a loophole that allows qualified investors living in Puerto Rico to avoid paying local or federal taxes on capital gains, Bloomberg reports.

Opportunities

• President Donald Trump will have dinner with the top 220 holders of the Trump memecoin at his private club in Washington on May 22. The top 25 Trump coin holders will also be invited to a reception before the dinner and will be given a tour of the White House, writes Bloomberg.
• Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance Holdings, has been named an adviser to Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan and met with Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to discuss the country’s potential as a crypto hub, explains Bloomberg. Zhao encourages governments to take a relaxed approach to regulating digital assets and suggests establishing new regulatory agencies.
• Bitcoin has advanced above $90,000 for the first time since early March, fueling optimism that it is breaking free of its tendency to move in the same direction as U.S. tech stocks. Bitcoin has rallied almost 23% from an April 7 low, trading more akin to gold and begun to decouple from U.S. risk assets, writes Bloomberg.

Threats

• Cryptocurrency exchange Meteora, its CEO Bejamin Chow, and venture capital firm Kelsier Labs, are accused of manipulating the trading prices of a newly launched memecoin, reports Bloomberg, causing $69 million in losses to investors.
• North Korean hackers posing as American tech entrepreneurs quietly registered companies in New York and New Mexico as part of a campaign to compromise developers in the crypto industry. Two businesses, Blocknovas and Softglide, were created using fictious identities and addresses and tied with the Lazarus group, writes Bloomberg.
• Shaquille O’Neal has reached a settlement agreement with a group of FTX investors who accused him of enabling the failed crypto exchange’s fraud by acting as a celebrity promoter. Plaintiffs in the case are seeking up to $21 billion in total damages from O’Neal and other promoters, former executives and other insiders, writes Bloomberg.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Boeing is strengthening its strategic positioning. The company has officially been selected as the lead contractor for the development and production of the F-47, the world’s first sixth-generation fighter jet. This is not just a symbolic win, but a long-term anchor in the next-gen combat aviation space, securing a multi-decade production runway.
• Northrop Grumman successfully launched the NROL-174 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office from Vandenberg Space Force Base. This reinforces the company’s critical role in supporting U.S. strategic intelligence and national security in orbit.
• The best performing stock this week was Archer Aviation, rising 18.81%, after securing design approval from the UAE’s aviation authority to build the country’s first hybrid heliport for helicopters and eVTOLs in Abu Dhabi.

Weaknesses

• Due to weaker demand in aerospace composites, Hexcel lowered its 2025 guidance for revenue, earnings and free cash flow. This signals a slowdown in certain parts of the supply chain, especially from civil and specialized defense customers.
• L3Harris is experiencing revenue pressure. While the company reported stronger-than-expected profits, its lowered full-year revenue and earnings per share (EPS) guidance suggests potential weakness in major defense contracts and uneven demand across business segments.
• The worst performing stock this week was Northrop Grumman Corp, declining 12.43%, after the company reported a 47% drop in Q1 profit, missed earnings estimates, cut its 2025 forecast by up to $600 million due to rising B-21 bomber costs and saw its shares fall 12% amid broader defense sector concerns over tariffs and trade tensions.

Opportunities

• March saw an 11% month-over-month increase in the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background System (NICS) background checks, reaching 2.58 million. This is the first meaningful monthly gain in six months and an early indicator of strengthening retail firearms demand, potentially benefiting companies like Sturm Ruger and Smith & Wesson.

• Deutsche Bank’s DWS unit is lifting bans on investing in defense and nuclear-related companies, following ESG guideline changes. This may unlock hundreds of billions of euros in institutional capital previously excluded from the sector.
• Rheinmetall scales up ammunition production: the company is launching a new facility capable of producing 350,000 NATO-standard 155mm shells annually by 2026. This is a direct response to Europe’s exposed munitions shortfall and a key step toward supply chain sovereignty.

Threats

• The Trump administration is pushing a peace deal that includes recognizing Crimea as Russian territory and freezing the conflict in exchange for easing sanctions. This threatens to fracture the Western alliance supporting Kyiv and could lead to a breakdown in unified deterrence.
• A Google Drive folder containing detailed White House floor plans and vendor banking data was mistakenly sent to over 11,000 General Services Administration (GSA) employees. This incident highlights severe vulnerabilities in the federal cybersecurity infrastructure and raises the risk of exploitation through compromised supply chains or insider threats.
• India-Pakistan tensions flare: Cross-border shelling resumed along the Line of Control in Kashmir following a deadly attack on Indian tourists. The diplomatic and military escalation raises the risk of regional instability and could redirect U.S. and allied defense focus away from other priority theaters.

Gold Market

This week, gold futures closed at $3,317.8, down $10.60 per ounce, or 0.32%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 4.14%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index rose 3.09%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar increased/decreased by 0.21%.

Strengths

• Silver outperformed this week, rising 1.56%. While gold’s recent surge underscores its role as a hedge during turbulent times, silver, often a late-cycle performer, may now offer greater upside given its dual function as both a safe haven and an industrial metal. With the gold-silver ratio historically stretched (currently around 99), past patterns suggest silver could soon outperform if economic conditions stabilize, according to Bloomberg.

• K92 Mining posted strong Q1/25 results, reporting gold equivalent production of 47,817 ounces—nearly double estimates—driving estimated revenue of $124 million, cash costs of $578/oz, and an all-in sustain cost (AISC) of $1,218/oz. However, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23 came in slightly below consensus. With record production and stronger cash reserves in 2024, K92 is positioned for a transformational 2025 as it advances its Stage 3 expansion at Kainantu, targeting 168,000oz AuEq production and enhanced milling capacity. Canaccord raised its target price to C$16.00, maintaining a BUY rating.
• Assets under management at physically backed gold ETFs continue to climb, led by inflows of 26 tons in the U.S. and 20 tons in China at the start of April. Year-to-date (YTD), investors have increased exposure to these vehicles by 9.1% or 293 tons, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

Weaknesses

• Palladium was the weakest performing precious metal, down 2.43% for the week. Continued ETF outflows and weakening investor demand contributed to palladium’s 2.5% year-to-date decline. Unlike platinum, which saw modest inflows this week, palladium’s dual exposure to industrial use and speculative flows leaves it vulnerable to shifting sentiment.
• Environmental permits at Laiva Gold’s Laivakangas mine in Finland were revoked following “years of breaches that caused environmental damage and risks,” according to a local authority. Financial difficulties at the company were cited as a partial cause, according to the Regional State Administrative Agency’s statement on Tuesday.
• Hochschild Mining reported lower-than-expected Q1 production, with attributable output of 79,900oz of gold, missing BMO’s forecast of 84,200oz. Production declined quarter-over-quarter as expected due to seasonality. Mara Rosa was particularly impacted by heavier-than-anticipated rainfall, limiting access to high-grade open-pit zones and resulting in output of 16,000oz versus the forecasted 19,900oz.

Opportunities

• China is considering setting up overseas gold warehouses to support international settlements via the Shanghai Gold Exchange, according to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This move aims to expand the use of the RMB benchmark internationally. The Shanghai International Gold Exchange is key to China’s de-dollarization push, offering RMB reserve holders the opportunity to convert into gold. The RMB is now used for most inbound and outbound transactions, according to the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
• The S&P/TSX Gold Index (USD) has broken out above its last cyclical high from August 2024. Since February 2024, the index is up 104%, while gold has risen 64%. Despite strong equity performance, valuations remain inexpensive. Canaccord notes that senior producers are trading at 0.62x NAV compared to their historical average of 0.80x (±1.5 standard deviations).
• Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) announced an agreement to acquire 100% of Orogen Royalties for C$421 million (or C$2.00/share), comprising C$171.5 million in cash, C$171.5 million in TFPM shares, and C$78 million in shares of the new Orogen SpinCo. Orogen shareholders may elect either C$1.63/share in cash or 0.05355 TFPM shares per Orogen share, plus 0.25 shares in the SpinCo, representing approximately $0.37/share in value. TFPM will finance the deal through its existing $700 million undrawn credit facility, according to CIBC.

Threats

• Gold’s rally may be overstretched, as implied volatility rises alongside spot prices. Three-month implied volatility on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF—viewed as a proxy for gold’s volatility—is climbing. Similar spikes in 2020 and 2022 preceded declines in gold prices amid broader risk-off environments. As implied volatility rises with prices, positioning becomes crowded, raising market sensitivity to profit-taking, Bloomberg reports.
• Retail interest in gold stocks has reached peak levels comparable to prior market tops in 2020 and 2011, according to RBC. Concerns are growing that the current strength of the rally, combined with existing positioning, could limit further upside.
• Investors pulled $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF earlier this week—the largest one-day outflow since 2011. This occurred just as bullion hit an all-time high above $3,500/oz, suggesting profit-taking may be underway, according to Bloomberg.

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United Parcel Service Inc.

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Co.

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The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.

Bloomberg Economics Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index measures the degree of uncertainty surrounding trade policies across different countries. It’s based on text analysis of news articles, quantifying the frequency of mentions of both “trade policy” and “uncertainty” in major newspapers.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a monthly survey that measures US consumer attitudes towards their personal finances, the business climate, and overall economic activity.

The S&P/TSX Global Gold Sector Index is a modified cap-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped at 25%.

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