America’s Tariff Rate Hits the Highest Level Since 1909—And That’s Before Retaliation

Ouch.

Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.

When we combine all new tariffs in 2025 so far, including the raft of reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, we’re looking at an average effective rate of 22.5%, according to Yale’s Budget Lab. That’s the highest such rate since 1909—the same year that President Howard Taft proposed the idea of an income tax to Congress.

Avg Effective Tariff Rate in the US

History Shows Tariffs Often Backfire

As I pointed out to you last month, tariffs are a type of tax paid for by domestic import-export companies, who often pass the additional cost on to consumers. This can turbocharge domestic inflation.

Tariffs can also lead to full-blown trade wars, as we saw in the federal government’s previous attempts to raise revenue through the taxation of imported goods.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, enacted in 1930, is widely believed to have exacerbated the effects of the Great Depression, as global trade tanked a whopping 65%. A few decades prior, then-Representative William McKinley’s tariff act triggered retaliation from other nations, leading to higher prices for U.S. consumers. (If you need to brush up on your Smoot-Hawley history, I recommend the famous “Anyone? Anyone?” scene in 1986’s Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, which you can watch here.)

As was the case then, we’re already seeing retaliatory tariffs. China announced today that it will impose a 34% duty on all goods imported from the U.S.