March’s Interim Data Highlights: Economic Clues from Costco, Taiwan Semi, and Brokers

by Christine Short of Wall Street Horizon, 3/7/25

Takeaways

  • Investors are on edge about what tariff policy means for markets

  • Coming off a strong Q4 earnings season, fresh February corporate sales figures can help assess the macro situation

  • We focus on the consumer, the chips industry, and what a host of asset managers may reveal as interim data reports roll in

Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty. With NVIDIA’s (NVDA) report last week, Q4 boasted the best bottom-line growth rate for the S&P 500 since 2021.1 Moreover, CEOs are the most confident (by the Wall Street Horizon Late Earnings Report Index or LERI) in two years despite unknowns on trade, taxes, and tariffs.

Consumers do not appear to be feeling as upbeat, though. Just take a look at recent gauges. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment dropped 10% in its latest look amid household concerns that President Trump’s tariffs would bring about another inflation wave.2 Then, last week, The Conference Board largely backed up what UMich signaled. According to that report (which is more tied to labor market conditions than inflation), household vibes dropped by the most since 2021.3

From Froth to Fear

Uncertainty has crept into investors’ psyche, too. The weekly survey published by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) tallied the third-highest number of net bears since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.4 It’s a sharp turnaround from frothy feelings about stock prices around the turn of the year.5 The CNN Fear and Greed Index notched “extreme fear” after the market sell-off last Thursday as well.6 But it’s important to call out that the most intense downside since mid-February has come from the momentum factor, not a broad washout across the 11 sectors.

CEOs Still Upbeat

So, we enter the final month of the first quarter at an interesting crossroads. The hard economic data is not bad by any means, but confidence both among households and investors has taken a gut punch. The LERI and The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index are encouraging, but we’ve yet to see the much-anticipated wave of M&A, IPOs, and big-time CAPEX (ex-the AI hyperscalers) so far in 2025.7

We might get the first breadcrumbs on how the year progresses via interim data reported by some of the world’s most important bellwether companies over the next two weeks. Between earnings seasons, there’s plenty of data to parse from monthly sales reports, production numbers, AUM totals, and activity highlights.

This week, we highlight a handful of such firms that may alleviate macro worries, or make recession chatter grow louder.