Key takeaways:
- The prevailing tailwinds of the strong U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cutting cycle are likely to drive fixed income returns in the year ahead.
- The multi-sector category is offering attractive yields in the mid-to-high single digits, and we believe a multi-sector approach may offer better access to the wide array of opportunities available in fixed income markets.
- Moreover, we believe allocating to sectors that are trading at cheaper relative valuations – such as loans over high yield, or collateralized loan obligations and asset-backed securities over corporates – will be key in 2025.
Looking toward 2025, we believe investors should seek to take advantage of two prevailing tailwinds driving fixed income returns: The strong U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve (Fed) having initiated its rate-cutting cycle.
In our view, investors may better capitalize on these tailwinds through a multi-sector approach – versus investing in money markets or static benchmark indexes – for the following three reasons:
1. Multi-sector portfolios may offer exposure to a wider selection of fixed income sectors.
As shown in Exhibit 1, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (U.S. Agg) is overwhelmingly weighted in U.S. Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and investment-grade (IG) corporates. In contrast, typical multi-sector portfolios may provide exposure to a broad array of fixed income sectors, offering better diversification of risk exposures, borrowers, and sources of yield.
Most importantly, a multi-sector approach might seek to capitalize on attractive opportunities that typically cannot be accessed through benchmark indexes. These include collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which has been the best-performing fixed income sector behind high-yield corporates over the past 10 years.
2. Multi-sector funds may provide a better mix of interest-rate and credit-spread risk
U.S. Treasuries and agency MBS make up around 70% of the U.S. Agg. Both Treasuries and MBS are backed by the U.S. government, offer no credit spread return, and tend to be longer-duration assets. Therefore, as shown in Exhibit 2, U.S. Agg-like portfolios are highly exposed to interest-rate risk, while offering little exposure to credit-spread risk.
Managers of multi-sector portfolios may aim to strike a balance between interest-rate and credit-spread risk, resulting in a portfolio’s yield source being less one-dimensional. This balance may also help to improve risk-adjusted returns, as rates and spreads have historically been negatively correlated when inflation is below 3%. (Negative correlation can reduce overall volatility, as a rise in rates may be somewhat counterbalanced by a narrowing of credit spreads, and vice versa.)
3. Multi-sector funds have historically generated better long-term returns
As shown in Exhibit 3, over the past 10 years, the multi-sector category has provided nearly double the return of the U.S. Agg and of cash on an annualized basis, with only marginally higher volatility than the U.S. Agg. In our view, the outperformance speaks to the benefit of having diversified income streams and a better balance of credit-spread and interest-rate risk.
Importantly, Exhibit 3 plots the risk and return for the entire multi-sector category. Because many of the funds in the category are actively managed, there is a high level of dispersion among the peer group. While some managers have lagged the average, others have consistently outperformed. We believe it is vital for investors to perform adequate due diligence when hiring a manager in the multi-sector space, as outcomes can be greatly influenced by manager selection.
Before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, rates markets had been pricing in 200 basis points (bps) of cuts through the end of 2025 on the back of downward-trending inflation and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) bumper 50 bps September rate cut. All that changed following Donald Trump’s election victory and the Republican Party’s Congressional sweep
Now it appears the way is open for Trump to implement the policies he proposed on the campaign trail – lower taxes, sweeping tariffs on imported goods, and large-scale deportations of immigrants living in the country illegally. If enacted, some of these polices could lead to higher growth – but also higher inflation, which would hamstring the Fed from cutting rates as much as previously projected.
As shown in Exhibit 2, rates markets have since adjusted to a higher-for-longer future, anticipating the federal funds rate will fall only about 100 bps over the next two years.
In our view, the repricing of rates markets bodes well for floating-rate bonds such as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), as higher rates translate into higher income for investors, all else equal.
Take AAA CLOs for example, which currently yield 5.6%.1 If CLO credit spreads remain constant at existing levels and rates unfold as markets expect, AAA CLOs could experience only a modest reduction in yield over the next 24 months.
U.S. consumer loan balances, which include credit cards and other revolving plans, recently surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history, but the rise in debt tells only half the story. Households remain well capitalized, with ample ability to service consumer debt.
While some lower-income households are beginning to show some financial strain, middle- and upper-income households – which account for more than 85% of total spending – have benefited from stock portfolios and home values rising to all-time highs, low levels of unemployment, and wages that continue to grow well ahead of their pre-COVID rates.
As a result, rising debt levels have not led to an alarming deterioration in households’ ability to service their debt. As shown in Exhibit 3, the debt service ratio has simply returned to, and stabilized around, its pre-COVID range and remains well below the concerning levels seen leading up to the Global Financial Crisis. We believe the outlook for asset-backed securities (ABS) and consumer credit remains upbeat amid the enduring strength of U.S. households.
In summary
In our view, U.S. consumers and corporates remain in good shape. We consider the risk of recession to be low and believe investors can lean into the attractive yields in securitized fixed income. Moreover, as active managers, we can be selective about the types and quality of securitized assets our clients are exposed to, seeking to avoid concerning parts of the market while taking advantage of more attractive opportunities.
Sources and Definitions
1 As of 15 November 2024. Calculated using 3-month SOFR plus the J.P. Morgan CLO AAA Index Discount Margin.
Basis point (bp) equals 1/100 of a percentage point. 1 bp = 0.01%, 100 bps = 1%.
The Bloomberg Aa Corporate Index measures the Aa-rated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.
The Bloomberg US CMBS Investment Grade Index measures the investment-grade market of US Agency and US Non-Agency conduit and fusion CMBS deals with a minimum current deal size of $300mn. The index includes both US Aggregate eligible (ERISA eligible) and non-US Aggregate eligible (non-ERISA eligible) securities.
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) are debt securities issued in different tranches, with varying degrees of risk, and backed by an underlying portfolio consisting primarily of below investment grade corporate loans. The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if payments are not made timely or credit strength weakens. CLOs are subject to liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, call risk and the risk of default of the underlying assets.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS): fixed-income investment products that are backed by mortgages on commercial properties rather than residential real estate.
Credit Spread is the difference in yield between securities with similar maturity but different credit quality. Widening spreads generally indicate deteriorating creditworthiness of corporate borrowers, and narrowing indicate improving.
Duration measures a bond price’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The longer a bond’s duration, the higher its sensitivity to changes in interest rates and vice versa.
Investment-grade bond: A bond typically issued by governments or companies perceived to have a relatively low risk of defaulting on their payments, reflected in the higher rating given to them by credit ratings agencies.
Risk assets: Financial securities that may be subject to significant price movements (ie. carrying a greater degree of risk). Examples include equities, commodities, property lower-quality bonds or some currencies.
Volatility measures risk using the dispersion of returns for a given investment.
Yield to worst (YTW) is the lowest yield a bond can achieve provided the issuer does not default and accounts for any applicable call feature (ie, the issuer can call the bond back at a date specified in advance). At a portfolio level, this statistic represents the weighted average YTW for all the underlying issues.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Actively managed investment portfolios are subject to the risk that the investment strategies and research process employed may fail to produce the intended results. Accordingly, a portfolio may underperform its benchmark index or other investment products with similar investment objectives.
Derivatives can be more volatile and sensitive to economic or market changes than other investments, which could result in losses exceeding the original investment and magnified by leverage.
Diversification neither assures a profit nor eliminates the risk of experiencing investment losses.
Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate, inflation, credit and default risk. The bond market is volatile. As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if an issuer fails to make timely payments or its credit strength weakens.
Mortgage-backed security (MBS): A security which is secured (or ‘backed’) by a collection of mortgages. Investors receive periodic payments derived from the underlying mortgages, similar to the coupon on bonds. Mortgage-backed securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. They are subject to ‘extension risk’, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and ‘prepayment risk’, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns.
Securitized products, such as mortgage- and asset-backed securities, are more sensitive to interest rate changes, have extension and prepayment risk, and are subject to more credit, valuation and liquidity risk than other fixed-income securities.
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