Monthly Market Recap: Trumpmania 2.0

Stocks

U.S. equities rallied in November, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus. The S&P 500 Index gained 3.89%, with small-cap growth stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Growth Index, surging 10.51%. Small-cap leadership reflects optimism around domestic-focused policies.

Elon Musk’s appointment to co-lead the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) amplified investor sentiment. Tesla, emblematic of Musk’s disruptive vision, surged 34% during the month, underscoring the renewed investor confidence in sectors tied to innovation and infrastructure. Musk’s leadership, paired with biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, highlights the administration’s focus on fostering efficiency and forward-thinking industries.

Global equities, however, faced challenges. The MSCI EAFE Index, representing developed international markets, declined 0.93%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.31%. A strengthening dollar, trade uncertainty, and slower growth expectations outside the U.S. drove these declines.

Bonds

Fixed income markets posted modest gains as investors adjusted to the shifting economic outlook. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 1.09%, benefiting from stable Federal Reserve expectations despite concerns about fiscal stimulus driving inflation. High-yield and corporate bonds outperformed government debt, reflecting increased risk appetite as markets anticipated pro-business policies under the Trump administration.

Real Assets

Real assets struggled in November, with gold and commodities facing headwinds. Gold declined 4.63%, pressured by a strong dollar and a broad reduction in uncertainty, which diminished its appeal as a hedge.

Commodities were mixed. WTI Crude oil edged down 0.26%, reflecting subdued expectations for global demand despite an increased probability of a cease-fire in the Middle East. Often viewed as an economic bellwether, copper fell sharply by 5.98%, signaling concerns about slowing international growth and potential trade disruptions tied to protectionist U.S. policies.

Digital Assets

Digital assets were among the strongest performers in November, with Bitcoin soaring 35%. This surge reflects growing optimism that the Trump administration will favor cryptocurrencies more favorably. President-elect Trump has signaled plans to remove the crypto-critical SEC Chair Gary Gensler and replace him with a leader more supportive of innovation in digital finance.

The market is also anticipating regulatory easing for cryptocurrency listings, exchanges, and mining operations, which could create a more hospitable environment for the sector. Speculation about a potential national Bitcoin reserve further underscores the administration’s openness to integrating digital assets into its financial strategy. These developments have bolstered Bitcoin’s role as both a hedge against inflation and a strategic asset.

Final Thought

November’s market activity reflected the dramatic shift in political and economic expectations tied to Trump’s return to power. His governance style—marked by bold appointments like Musk and Ramaswamy and a commitment to dismantling entrenched systems—has reshaped market dynamics.

With U.S.-centric assets and digital innovation poised to benefit, investors must remain vigilant in navigating a complex global landscape. As markets recalibrate to 'Trump Trade 2.0,' the focus will be on the administration’s ability to deliver on its promises and sustain momentum in an evolving economic environment. Balancing optimism with caution will be key as this new chapter unfolds.

By David Schassler

Originally published on VanEck.

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Important Disclosures

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.

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S&P 500 Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial and transportation sector. Russell 2000 Index tracks the small-cap U.S. stock market. MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks large and mid-cap representation across emerging markets countries. MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad–based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar–denominated, fixed–rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed–rate and hybrid ARM pass–throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non–agency). MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large and mid cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

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