How 2024’S Election Could Reshape Your Portfolio

President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor. She’s managed to secure a majority of Democratic delegates, and she now has the endorsement of all top party leaders, including Barack Obama.

Harris’s campaign said it raised a jaw-dropping $100 million within 24 hours, which, if true, has to be a record. Users on the online betting platform Polymarket now believe the vice president has a 38% probability of winning in November, up from just 1% just a month earlier.

harris election

As a bit of trivia, Biden isn’t the first sitting president to choose not to seek reelection, but he’s the first to make the announcement so close to Election Day. Not including Richard Nixon, who quit the office outright in 1974, the last two presidents to forgo reelection were Lyndon Johnson, in 1968, and Harry Truman, in 1952.

GDP Surge Meets Market Rotation

This political upheaval comes at a time when the U.S. economy is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter hit an impressive 2.8%, beating expectations and more than doubling the growth in the first quarter.

u.s. economy

The S&P 500 is up about 14% this year, despite recent pullbacks as investors rotate out of high-flying tech stocks into smaller, undervalued companies. The shift appears to be partly driven by expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

In any case, these positive indicators—a solid economy and stock market—typically bode well for the incumbent party, giving Harris an edge.