Midyear Outlook 2024

Stay on track with the Midyear Outlook

As we reach the middle of 2024, where do our experts think you should focus portfolios given shifting rate expectations, sticky inflation, and global uncertainties? Allspring shares our insight on how to focus on quality equities and “ride the curve” in fixed income portfolios to pursue attractive income and the best client outcomes. Follow the insight to find out more.

Will interest rate divergence drive asset prices?

Head of Systematic Multi-Asset, Systematic Edge

A measured approach by each central bank means cuts in Europe and Asia with the U.S. on hold

When 2024 began, investors expected broad-based rate cuts worldwide given the flurry of weaker global data and central banks’ growing comfort with inflation’s trajectory. Since then, we’ve experienced a rather bumpy ride as larger rate cuts became priced out in the U.S. and, to a lesser degree, Europe. Figure 1 shows the overall change in rate-cut expectations since the beginning of 2024.


A more cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) approach in 2024’s second half seems justified given recent U.S. growth and inflation data, and we anticipate a maximum of two U.S. rate cuts this year. In Europe, we believe the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will begin a series of rate cuts over the summer, as we expect growth will stay low, consumer sentiment will remain weak, and inflation will continue rapidly declining toward the central banks’ target levels.