“Now Youse Can’t Leave”: What ‘A Bronx Tale’ Taught Me About Macro Economics

"I will never forget the look on their faces. All eight of them. Their faces dropped. All their courage and strength was drained right from their bodies. They had a reputation for breaking up bars, but they knew that instant, they'd made a fatal mistake. This time they walked into the wrong bar."

‘C’ Anello [Narrating]

With a few tweaks to this quote, it could capture the sentiment of many Fed Watchers over the past several months reacting to economic releases. It feels like every other week corporate news pundits are justifying a stock market whipsaw with “bad news is good news, but sometimes, bad news is bad news” when trying to predict a rate cut. It would be more entertaining, and just as informative, to watch a blind folded Jim Cramer call a tight horserace through the last furlong between ‘Hard Landing’, ‘Soft Landing’, and ‘No Landing.’

The last rate hike came mid-summer 2023, signaling that the Fed felt like it had done enough heavy lifting to coast back to a ~2% CPI, and the Market’s year-end expectation for the upcoming June meeting was that there would be about .75% worth of rate cuts by then.

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