2024 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy

After a quarter of the world's 45 largest economies fell into recession in 2023, the first half of 2024 brought a global economic recovery helping to lift the world's stock market nearly 10%, measured by the MSCI World Index. While we expect the second half of the year to build on this recovery, it may be characterized by a divergence in central bank policy and election-related risks that have the potential to increase stock market volatility.

World economy goes green

World economy goes green

Source: Charles Schwab, Macrobond, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as of 5/28/2024.

2024 OECD forecasts for 45 economies. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Recessions ended

The first half of 2024 tracked our forecast for a U-shaped "cardboard box" recovery for the global economy as detailed in our 2024 Global Outlook. The mild recession in the United Kingdom and Eurozone ended last year as growth returned in the first quarter of 2024. This was led by a global recovery in manufacturing and trade, or what we call "cardboard box" industries. Evidence of this recovery was reflected in the demand for cardboard boxes, as measured by the Fibre Box Association, illustrated in the chart below.