Predictions Are Pointless. Why You Shouldn’t Listen To Gurus.
“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr
Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst. If we could accurately predict the future, fortune tellers would win all the lotteries, psychics would be richer than Elon Musk, and portfolio managers would always beat the index.
However, we can analyze what occurred previously, weed through the noise of the present, and discern the possible outcomes of the future. The biggest problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is the consistent disregard of the unexpected and random events they inevitability occur.
We have seen plenty, from trade wars to Brexit, to Fed policy and a global pandemic in recent years. Yet, before each of those events caused a market downturn, Wall Street analysts were wildly bullish that wouldn’t happen.
For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022.
“There is one thing about Goldman Sachs that is always consistent; they are ‘bullish.’ Of course, given that the market is positive more often than negative, it ‘pays’ to be bullish when your company sells products to hungry investors.
It is important to remember that Goldman Sachs was wrong when it was most important, particularly in 2000 and 2008.
However, in keeping with its traditional bullishness, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin forecasted the S&P 500 will climb by 9% to 5100 at year-end 2022. As he notes, such will “reflect a prospective total return of 10% including dividends.”