A Much-Needed Crisis

Budget Futility
Relative Debt
“This Is a Country Capable of Miracles”
Update on the Oil Fund and a New Paper
Cancun, Memphis, and NYC

“Crisis” is an overused word. Actual crises are those rare times when we are on the knife edge of disaster. It’s not a crisis when a bank fails, or Congress can’t agree on a budget. Those are annoyances (unless it's your bank). While not good, they don’t spell immediate catastrophe.

I’ve long been predicting a global debt crisis that will lead to a giant, worldwide restructuring. I call this the Great Reset (a term the Davos people later appropriated). One of my top takeaways from the Strategic Investment Conference was that this crisis isn’t just inevitable; it is necessary. It’s what will allow us to do the unthinkable.

Excessive debt isn’t quite an extinction event but it’s still a giant problem. After SIC, I’m more confident we’ll find a solution. It will happen the same way we solve other problems: when we have no other choice.