The Return of El Niño

"Humanity is sitting on a time bomb. If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet's climate system into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced - a catastrophe of our own making." Al Gore

El Niño? Again?

I am fully aware that quite a few readers of the Absolute Return Letter do not subscribe to the consensus view that the current climate crisis is manmade and, for that reason, I may be about to upset one or two of our readers.

I also know that I cannot mathematically prove that the ongoing climate crisis is indeed manmade. Having said that, when my chances of winning €10,000,000 in the euro lottery are bigger than the probability of the temperature exceeding 40°C in April in the Mediterranean (which is what happened about six weeks ago), I need no more convincing.

Let me share with you why I think we are in for more extreme weather later this year. Even if nearly everyone thinks the last few years have been characterised by unusually warm weather, average temperatures have actually been held down by an exceptionally long La Niña – El Niño’s cooling opposite. In other words, had it not been for La Niña, it would have been much warmer since 2020 when she first arrived. The bad news is that La Niña has left us now and will soon be replaced by El Niño. This spells much warmer weather later this year and next. The extreme temperature in the western parts of the Mediterranean in April were only the first sign that La Niña has now left (see the story here); however, El Niño is yet to arrive (see here), so things can get a great deal worse than what we experienced in April.