Inflationary Choices

Juggling Thoughts
Hammers and Nails
Recession Projection
Some Guesses
Update on the Oil Fund and a New Paper
Dallas, Austin, Colorado Springs, and Tulsa

Spotting trend changes is the key to economic forecasting. They don’t happen often. Most of the time, this year will be similar to last year. The pace varies but the overall trend continues… until it doesn’t.

Those who lived through the painful 1970s inflation developed a certain mindset. Similarly, the 2008‒2020 disinflation/low inflation period, accompanied by multiple waves of QE, set expectations some still hold today. They think the current inflation is an aberration which will end as soon as Fed officials find the right magic words.

Of course, pointing out that much of today’s inflation comes from sources outside the Fed’s control—shipping, energy, etc.—displeases those who think the Fed has magic words. In fact, the Fed’s tools are blunt instruments with side effects even if they work. In this case, a likely recession.

Inflation will be on our Strategic Investment Conference agenda next month, but perhaps not in the way you think. We’ll look at where inflation came from and where it’s going but most important, how you can turn it to your advantage.

“Trust the Fed” isn’t the answer, nor is “grin and bear it.” Join me at the SIC as we plan a new strategy and think the unthinkable.