The International Channel

Global Economic Perspective: May

In this month's Global Economic Perspective, our Fixed Income Group opines on rising energy prices, US Treasury yields, emerging-market currency pressures and global economic growth.

YCG Q1 2018 Quarterly Review

In-depth write up of Moody's (MCO) highlighting how it fits into YCG's investment framework which focuses on identifying "great business" and "market-timing" mispricings.

World Markets Update

Six of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, May 21, 2018. The top performer this year is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 6.12%. In second is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 4.40%. In third is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 2.38%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 2.82%.


A Strategic Income Fund that is Thriving in a Challenging Bond Market

Carl Kaufman is the co-president, co-chief executive officer and managing director, fixed income at Osterweis Capital Management. He is the lead portfolio manager for the Strategic Income Fund. That fund has had an annualized return of 6.18% since its inception on 8/30/02. Its performance exceeded the AGG by 278 basis points. I interviewed Carl last week.

The Future for Factor Investing May Be Different Than its Backtested Past

Data mining is a huge risk with factor-based investment strategies. Many factors have proven to not work in practice. Even the most popular factors, like value and momentum, may prove less effective going forward.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Higher Interest Rates Lead to Lower Stock Prices?

The economic calendar is light, and the market week will be shortened. There is no holiday this week, but expect many participants to take off early for a long weekend. If interest remain above 3% on the ten-year note, that will be the focus.

Are You Prepared for Rising Interest Rates?

Interest rates continue their upward trend. In March, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 1.5% to 1.75%, citing strength in the US labor market, a low unemployment rate and moderate economic growth.

Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation

In the past 9 months, US equities have outperformed Europe by 6% and the rest the world by 5%. Despite this, fund managers remain underweight the US. US equities should continue to outperform their global peers on a relative basis.

Just One Thing

We have always liked the movie “City Slickers” and particularly one scene. It’s the scene where Curly (Jack Palance) turns to Mitch Robbins (Billy Crystal) and says, “Do you know the secret of life?” The punchline is, “It’s just one thing” (one thing). For investors we agree, all you need to know is just one thing.

Train Crash Preview

Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10–12 years.

Anticipating the Next Recession

In this issue, the Economics team looks at current recession risks in the U.S. and eurozone, and explores how rising oil prices will affect U.S. consumers.

Blockchain Will Completely Revolutionize How We Mine Gold and Precious Metals

This week I had the pleasure to attend Consensus 2018 in New York, the premiere gathering for the who’s who in blockchain, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Attendance doubled from last year to an estimated 8,500 people, all of them packed in a Hilton built for only 3,000. Ticket sales alone pulled in a whopping $17 million, while event booths—the largest of which belonged to Microsoft and IBM—generated untold millions more.

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 0.5% from Last Week

The S&P 500 dropped to start the week and recovered slightly by Friday. The index saw a loss of 0.54% from last Friday and 0.26% loss from yesterday. The index is up 0.64% YTD and is 5.57% below its record close.

Country Updates

Market updates from across the region.

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update

This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 148.7, down 0.6 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.80%, down from 3.87% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 4.3, down from the previous week.