The International Channel

Ten Investor Takeaways From the IMF/World Bank Meetings

Global central bankers, ministers of finance and representatives from the private sector and civic groups gathered in Washington, D.C., last week for the Annual Meetings of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the World Bank Group.

Will ECB Tapering Trigger Market Tantrum?

The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce a winding down of its quantitative easing program on October 26. Though investors are nervous, the ECB is doing a good job preparing markets for the change.

Putting Geopolitical Tensions into Perspective

When world leaders talk, markets react. And with social media becoming mainstream, politicians have a new way of getting their message to the masses.

China’s Congress Convenes

This month, China’s leadership kicks off its 19th Communist Party Congress, a meeting which sets the agenda for China’s political, economic and even social path in years to come. More than 2,000 delegates from China’s ruling elite attend the Congress, which takes place every five years.

Falling Correlations Put Stock-Specific Attributes in Driver’s Seat

Low market correlations make it easier for active portfolio managers to stand out—positively or negatively. But what matters most is how a portfolio of select stocks performs through market cycles, regardless of correlations.

Can Momentum Investing Be Saved?

Momentum is one of the most compelling factors in theoretical long–short paper portfolios, but live results of momentum strategies fall short of theoretical returns. Thoughtful implementation, a careful sell discipline, and an avoidance of stocks with stale momentum can narrow the gap between paper and live results.

Trump Packing Federal Courts With Conservative Judges

While the mainstream media remains obsessed with President Trump’s tweets and other controversial statements, the Commander-in-Chief is quietly packing the federal courts with conservative, originalist judges who are not only very smart but also relatively young.

Q&A: What You Should Know About China's 19th Communist Party Congress

China’s 19th Communist Party Congress is fast approaching. While the meetings are primarily a political event, they will shed some light on the party’s broad economic goals. There will also be major reshuffling across party leadership this year. 

North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part I

We begin our study of the historical relationship between North Korea and China, including a review of the Minsaengdan Incident and a broad examination of the Korean War.

"Lower and Longer" Has Legs

For the 18th straight year, Baird Advisors held its Institutional Investors Conference in Kohler, Wisconsin. Attendees listened to legendary Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward’s perspective on the Trump White House in the context of previous administrations he has covered and to global risk expert Ian Bremmer, President and founder of Eurasia Group, who introduced the concept of a geopolitical recession and mapped a new macroeconomic landscape where the institutions that defined the post-war world order are becoming less relevant.

Third Quarter 2017: I’m All Right … Don’t Nobody Worry About Me

The reports of the coming economic demise continue to prove premature. For much of the past few years, we have filled these pages with our data-driven retort to the constant noise about the next impending economic and market downturn.

Hedging Market Crashes with Factor Exposure

None of the factors consistently generated positive performance during recent market crashes. However, almost any factor exposure would have increased the risk-return ratio of an equity-centric portfolio. Low Volatility and Mean-Reversion would have been most beneficial. Momentum least.

World Markets Update

All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through October 16. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 30.42%, followed by India's BSE SENSEX at 22.56%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 14.24%.

Better, Faster, Cheaper

I first became aware of Frederick “Shad” Rowe, captain of Dallas-based Greenbrier Partners, by reading his brilliant comments in Forbes magazine decades ago. While Shade no longer writes for Forbes, his stock market insights are available via his monthly letter to the clients in his investment partnership.

What To Expect With Tax Reform

This Strategic Insight discusses how to bolster tax revenue by increasing potential growth and productivity through tax and spending reform to enhance global competitiveness and increase fairness across taxpayers, thus turn fiscal deficits into surplus. Various guiding principles outlined suggest various proven ways to achieve these objectives.