The International Channel

How to Protect Workers Without Trade Tariffs

Donald Trump’s trade war is an international tragedy. But it could have a happy ending if it eventually reminds us of the risks that free trade imposes on people, and if we improve our insurance mechanisms to help them.

Stealth Bull Market?

On CNBC last Friday, we stated that we have been in a stealth bull market. Indeed, after anticipating the stock market’s bottom in early February, the stealth bull market emerged.

Yuan Decline: Concerning But Not Systemic

Amid fears of escalating trade tensions, the yuan’s sharp depreciation against the dollar last month has spooked some investors who see similarities with China’s currency devaluation in 2015, an episode that prompted capital outflows and roiled markets worldwide. 

Not Dead Yet: What Many Investors Get Wrong About the American Mall

Headlines about the death of the American shopping mall have become so common that the phrase “retail apocalypse” has its own Wikipedia page. But this is a death wrongly foretold—and that creates investment opportunities.

Is China Tanking?

Chinese equities have been soft and President Trump is threatening a trade war, but earnings and margins remain firm and China is still the world’s best consumer story.

Convertible Securities: Reason for Optimism in 2H 2018 and Beyond

During the second half of the year, convertibles should benefit in advancing but volatile equity markets. Convertibles have outperformed bonds during rising rate environments. Thanks to their equity characteristics, convertible securities have performed well versus bonds during periods of rising interest rates—including this most recent period.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Anything Goes!

I cannot remember a market week with so many significant events. Important economic data and testimony by Fed Chairman Powell would be a big week. But we also have the Trump/Putin meeting, the start of an important earnings season, and the daily soap opera from Washington.

Malaysia: Where Voters Rule

In the mold of Winston Churchill in 1951, a spirited Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad has fought and won re-election as prime minister after years out of office. Dr. Mahathir returns to the leadership position he held for 22 years up to 2003 – a period that saw Malaysia rise into the ranks of middle income countries. 

World Markets Update

Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, July 16, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 7.43%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.67%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 1.82%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 14.91%.

 

Five Risks That Could Affect Fixed Income Markets

Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy — we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long.

The Economy and Markets at Midyear: Is the Outlook Heating Up?

Coming off of a strong year for the economy and markets, we had high hopes for 2018, but the first half of the year didn’t play out as planned. Between the stock market pullback early in the year; the slowdown in economic growth; and rising risks, largely in trade, expectations softened. As we hit the midway point for 2018, though, it looks as if those initial hopes might be more realistic than they seemed even a month ago.

What You Get if you Cross Buffett, Branson and Jobs

Jobs, Branson, Buffett – it is rare for somebody to embody strengths of each of these business giants. Masayoshi Son, the Korean-Japanese, University of California, Berkeley-educated founder of one of Japan’s most successful companies, SoftBank Group, is a candidate.

Venerated Voices™ Q2 2018 Rankings

Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices awards for commentaries published in Q2 2018.

Powell’s Testimony

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, but he’s not expected to cover any new ground.

When Push Comes to Shove

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.