The International Channel

Credit Risk? Interest-Rate Risk? Both Are Critical

Investors often ask us which of the two primary bond market risks—interest rate or credit—they should focus on in 2017. Our answer? Both of them—and the interaction between the two.

5 Charts That Show 2017 Could Be a Banner Year for Retailers

Thursday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that we could expect “significant” tax reform by August, including tax cuts for middle-income Americans and corporations. Like clockwork, the major stock indices rallied to all-time highs in intraday trading.

Borderline

President Trump is expected to announce a revised tax cut plan soon. In the meantime, it’s worth revisiting how the sausage gets made in Washington. By law, tax code changes must originate in the House of Representatives, and the Senate will have its say.

The Administration Now Faces the Hurdles of Reality

There has rarely been a new presidential administration in the history of the United States that has tried to get so much done in its first ten days as the current one.

We Are Growing Less Positive (But Not Negative) Toward Equities

Equity markets have increased since the U.S. elections for two principal reasons: optimism over a pro-growth legislative agenda from Donald Trump and improving U.S. and global economic and earnings growth.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Trump Policies Extend the Business Cycle?

We have another holiday-shortened week with little fresh data. While there are some Fed speakers on tap, it is not enough to feed the avaricious punditry.

When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance

As Benjamin Graham observed decades ago, "Speculators often prosper through ignorance; it is a cliche that in a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap. But the typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss."

On My Radar: Blood in the Streets, Indeed

We sipped the QE juice and loved the taste. Now we’re full… the game has changed. The Fed had assets worth $858 billion on its books in the week ended August 1, 2007 just before the start of the financial crisis, and the same stood at $2.24 trillion at the end of 2009.

Southeastern Asset Management: “We welcome unpredictability”

Ross Glotzbach is head of research and a principal at Southeastern Asset Management, one of the most respected value managers. In this interview, he discusses his investment outlook in an era of political and economic uncertainty.

Gold Gets a Shot in the Arm from Inflation and China

Inflation just got another jolt, rising as much as 2.5 percent year-over-year in January, the highest such rate since March 2012. Led by higher gasoline, rent and health care costs, consumer prices have now advanced for the sixth straight month. In addition, January is the second straight month for rates to be above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.

Weekly Market Summary

US equities continue to make new all-time highs each week, supported by strong equity fund inflows and macro data that has exceeded expectations. Surprisingly, equities outside the US are actually outperforming the S&P. The current trend is very extended and there are four notable headwinds that may impact equities in the weeks ahead. There is, conversely, a favorable set up in the bond market.

Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly—Part Three

Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points

S&P 500 Snapshot: Yet Another Record Close

On Friday, the S&P opened lower than Thursdays' close and was fairly flat until late in the day with a rise a couple of hours before close. The index reached its intraday high at close and ended the day with a gain of 0.17%. Week over week, the index saw a gain of 1.51% ending Friday with another record close.

Big Winners in the Neglected Frontier Universe

Frontier markets were mixed in 2016, with most of the Middle East and Africa lagging the rest of the universe and a few mar­kets surging ahead 30-40% on the year.

Russia: Stagnant Stability

A recent trip to Moscow on the 100th anniversary of the 1917 revolution revealed not a whiff of revolutionary change in the economy, but rather stagnant growth mixed with structural stability. We could simply call it “stagnant stability.”