The International Channel

There They Go Again...Again

I’m in the process of writing another book, going into great depth regarding one of the most important things discussed in my book The Most Important Thing: cycles, their causes, and what to do about them. It will be out next year, but this memo will give you a preview regarding one of the most important cyclical phenomena.

Some Speed Bumps Slowing the Bull

I continue to believe that the two most important issues receiving inadequate investor attention are productivity and the role of central bank liquidity in the performance of financial markets. Productivity is critical to both earnings improvement and a rising standard of living.

Mid-Year Outlook: Be More Selective in the Second Half

After a strong first half to 2017 for equities, the message for the remainder of the year is to look for returns more carefully in the second half says Neil Dwane, global strategist for Allianz Global Investors. The “country factor” will be key: We believe investors can no longer rely on a rising tide of cyclical data to lift all boats.

Risk Versus Reward

Psychologists have uncovered a surprising number of idiosyncrasies from making the soundest choice in many situations. These lapses explain some of the mysterious up and downdrafts that can lift and lower stock prices. Understanding them can make successful investing easier. The most important findings arise from answers to a pair of questions.

China and Emerging Asia: A New Dawn for the Capital Markets

Asia’s integration into world financial markets may be accelerating.

An Active Look at Small-Cap Investing

Overall, we believe small-cap stocks in emerging markets offer attractive prospects for active managers. A multitude of mispriced securities, market inefficiencies and a paucity of research provide considerable investment opportunities, in our view.

July 2017 Market Commentary

It is stinking hot and steamy on the East Coast these days, as the proverbial “dog days of summer” set in. Historically, this was a time of year when things slowed down, people went on vacation, and it was generally too hot to move fast, but not this year.

Dynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection

In 2012 we published a whitepaper entitled “Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer” in which we built upon the simple, robust momentum framework proposed by Mebane Faber in his 2009 study “Relative Strength Strategies for Investing.”

Bronfman Rothschild 2017 Q2 Review

Supply and demand seems to have been placed on the backburner in today’s world of prognosticating inflation, employment, and GDP. The first point is the supply of publicly traded stock in the US. The second point is the supply of money.

Deciphering China’s Economic Resilience

International economic forecasters find it difficult to resist superimposing the experience of crisis-prone developed economies onto China. But, once again, the Chinese economy has defied the pessimists: after decelerating for six consecutive years, real GDP growth appears to be inching up in 2017.

Fund Manager Allocations

Global equities have risen 7% in the past 3 months and 16% in the past year, yet fund managers continue to hold significant amounts of cash, suggesting lingering doubts and fears.

The Geekiest (and Most Important) Number Nobody Is Discussing

Russ explains why investors should pay more attention to the stock-bond correlation coefficient and understand its impact on investment portfolios.

Europe’s Long‑Term Economic Outlook: Better Now, Challenges Ahead

When PIMCO professionals gather for our annual Secular Forum to discuss the long-term global economic outlook, views on Europe invariably gravitate on two themes: anemic GDP growth and political risk.

World Markets Update

All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through July 24. The top performer thus far is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 22.03%, followed closely by India's BSE SENSEX at 21.10%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 10.32%.

Moderate Growth for Q2

Since the start of the economic recovery in mid-2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The second quarter of this year doesn't look much different. Our calculations suggest real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2, exactly the same as the consensus forecast.