The General Advisory Channel

Can Momentum Investing Be Saved?

Momentum is one of the most compelling factors in theoretical long–short paper portfolios, but live results of momentum strategies fall short of theoretical returns. Thoughtful implementation, a careful sell discipline, and an avoidance of stocks with stale momentum can narrow the gap between paper and live results.

What To Expect With Tax Reform

This Strategic Insight discusses how to bolster tax revenue by increasing potential growth and productivity through tax and spending reform to enhance global competitiveness and increase fairness across taxpayers, thus turn fiscal deficits into surplus. Various guiding principles outlined suggest various proven ways to achieve these objectives.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 15K, Affected by Hurricanes

Today's seasonally adjusted 243K new claims, down 15K from last week's revised 258K, was better than the forecast of 251K. Hurricane Harvey, Irma, and Maria impacted this week's claims.

Business and Politics in South Korea

My recent travels took me to South Korea at an interesting time given mounting tensions with its neighbor to the north. My colleagues and I got a pulse check on some of the reforms taking place, including those related to the family-run conglomerate companies known as chaebols.

Another Nobel Surprise for Economics

Richard Thaler has shown in his research how to focus economic inquiry more decisively on real and important problems. His research program has been both compassionate and grounded, and he has established a research trajectory for young scholars and social engineers that marks the beginning of a real and enduring scientific revolution.

Short-Term Volatility vs. Full-Blown Bear Market

2008 may have generationally scarred investor psychology. As a result, many continue to disavow the current bull market and instead heed warnings of an impending bear market. We argue that fundamentals remain strong and the global equity markets are rife with opportunity.

The Ratio of Part-Time Employed: September 2017

Let's take a close look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government's Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The source is the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of households. The focus is on total hours worked regardless of whether the hours are from a single or multiple jobs.

Weighing the Week Ahead: Does Economic Strength Equal Stock Market Strength?

It is a big week for economic data. The punditry will be analyzing the Trump tax proposal. Everyone will be drawing conclusions about how these factors may be linked with stock prices. Expect people to be asking: Does economic strength equal stock market strength?

Part 2: Evidence Based Investing is Dead. Long Live Evidence Based Investing!

This article will tackle the “p-hacking” issue and propose a framework to help those who embrace evidence-based investing to make judicious decisions based on a more thoughtful interpretation of finance research.

Misbehavior Complicates Economic Outcomes

We would do well to heed the teaching of behavioralists as we craft solutions to some of today’s thorniest problems.

Moving Averages: September Month-End Update

Valid until the market close on October 31, 2017.

The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly gain of 1.93% after a small gain of 0.05% in August. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and all five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), and Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "invested".

What’s Behind the Anti-Fiduciary Mindset?

In case you missed it, on September 7, APViewpoint hosted one of the best debates ever regarding the fiduciary standard and the DOL rule. It was notable because unlike most of what you’ve been reading, it covered both sides of the topic, and the debaters forced each other to provide deeper rationales for their beliefs. Here are my key insights, particularly those that illustrate the thinking behind the anti-fiduciary mindset.

Dr. Hendrik Bessembinder Asks the Question, “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?”

Our lives often seem to be dominated by numbers. Social Security numbers, drivers’ license numbers, account numbers… an unlimited number of 0’s and 1’s residing in thousands of databases, many of which are designed to keep track of our every move. Most of these numbers used to identify us are not necessarily wanted.

Ignoring Starting Yields—Nabbing This “Usual Suspect” in Poor Investment Outcomes

Starting conditions matter. Today’s investment yields impact future realized returns. But many still rely on past returns to estimate future returns. Our online Asset Allocation Interactive tool gives you the information you need to look ahead, not just back.

Random Walk Part 2 – Does Any Asset Price Fit the Bell Curve?

Part 1 of this series focused on the failure of the random walk to depict the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In this article, I expand the study to include six diverse asset classes including large-caps (the S&P500), small-caps (the Russell 2000), emerging markets, gold, the dollar and the 10-year Treasury bond.