Emerging-Market Stocks Extend Rally Amid Earnings Optimism
Emerging-market stocks rose for a second day, with the benchmark gauge heading for a three-week high amid optimism over corporate earnings.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose for a seventh time in eight days, trading near the highest level since April 3. Analysts average estimate for profits over the next 12 months for companies in the benchmark gauge rose to the highest level since Donald Trump’s election win in November.
EM stocks are on the verge of erasing their April losses as they benefit from a waning demand for US assets and a weaker dollar. Skepticism about China is also fading as data from the world’s second-biggest economy improves and authorities commit to greater support for both domestic-focused industries and exporters.
Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd, said the recent EM rally has been largely driven by the broad “sell America” trade amid policy uncertainty from Trump. It can continue, he added, with those countries that finalize trade deals with the US — which result in a permanent lowering of tariffs — likely to outperform peers.
“The upside in EM does make some logical sense, though, particularly ex-China, with a number of APAC nations looking keen to strike a trade agreement with the US as soon as possible” to take advantage of shifting supply chains, Brown said.
Monday’s gains also put the EM stocks index above its 200-day moving average. If the gauge ends April with an advance, that would mark a gain in each of the first four months of a year — a feat last achieved in 2019. Earnings estimates for the gauge have risen 0.8% this month, the most since August.
In the currency market, traders were more cautious as they focused on US trade talks and a slew of US and Chinese data. The main gauge of developing-nation currencies was flat Monday. The Thai baht was among the weaker performers amid falling gold prices and growing expectations of a local interest rate cut.
