The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest

The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.

An analysis of the ships targeted by Washington suggests that nearly 1.5 million barrels a day of crude shipped from Pacific and Arctic ports could be heavily curtailed. More than one-third of those cargoes require specialized, purpose built tankers that will be hard to replace. Flows of the nation’s key Urals grade from ports in the Baltic and Black Sea look set to face less-severe — but still significant — constraints.

Last Friday, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed restrictions on 158 oil tankers involved in the Russia trade, with the State Department targeting another three vessels. The measures were part of the most-aggressive round of sanctions on Russia’s oil trade by any Western power since the war in Ukraine began almost three years ago.

The oil market is still trying to pick apart the impact of the sanctions, which could redraw traders’ expectations for a global supply surplus in 2025. Brent oil has rallied $5 a barrel since the measures were introduced, with some predicting further gains.