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July 19, 2011 - Vol 5 Issue 29 
Dear Reader, If you are experiencing problems opening or navigating through our newsletters, we can send you a text-only version. Please send an email to feedback@advisorperspectives.com requesting the "text-only" version. If you have received this newsletter in error, or you do not wish to receive future newsletters, please reply to this email with the word “unsubscribe” in the subject line. 
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 Gundlach: A Debt Ceiling Impasse Could Drive Rates Lower
By Robert Huebscher
Failing to raise the debt ceiling would be a 'huge financial calamity,' according to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the general consensus view. But that opinion is 'exactly wrong,' at least as far as the Treasury market is concerned, DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach said in a conference call with investors last Tuesday. 
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How One Firm Boosted AUM and Simplified Its Operations -
Complimentary Webinar
Sponsored Content by ByAllAccounts
Envestnet and ByAllAccounts now deliver a comprehensive view of client accounts and reports on a variety of investable assets, including 401(k)s, 529 plans and annuities, within a single web-based platform. A user of that system will discuss the criteria and process of selecting an outsourcer, how to increase revenue generation with account aggregation and the benefits realized. |
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Sorting Out the Annuity Puzzle
By Joseph A. Tomlinson
Why do so few people buy annuities? Economic theory would predict robust demand for this financial product, especially as the workforce ages, but the reality is quite the reverse. Most efforts to explain this have focused on buyer behavior. But to better understand the annuity puzzle, we need to study the sellers. |
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A New Approach for Forecasting Market Returns
By C. Thomas Howard
I propose a method for predicting future market movements, which I call the strategy market barometer (SMB). The SMB is calculated by measuring the extent to which investors are rewarding specific investment strategies being pursued by active equity managers. My research reveals that equity strategy performance ranking is a useful predictor of future market returns, and tests confirm that market returns vary in line with SMB measurements. |
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Getting Prospects to Return Voice Mails
By Dan Richards
Given the unrelenting demands on everyone's time, we can no longer take it for granted that prospects will return our calls - and even clients are slower to return calls. That said, there are two things that will increase the chances of your calls being returned. |
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Retirement Planning and Worst-Case Scenarios
By Wade Pfau
New research suggests that skepticism in a 4% safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is well justified. It is perhaps due to good luck that American retirees have not yet experienced a withdrawal rate below 4%. But a better approach than worrying about SWRs is to focus on the savings rate needed to meet your retirement spending goals, not on what the safe withdrawal rate is. |
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Should You Use Google+?
By Kristin Luke
The jury is still out on whether Google+ is going to be the next Facebook. So the question is, 'Should you use it?' |
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Trust as a Management Tool
By Justin Locke
Orchestral conductors are often compared to CEOs for their ability to inspire teamwork in organizations. But only a certain type of conductor - and CEO - provides the leadership that produces the best results. |
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You and the Internet, Part II - Places to Go, People to See
By Wendy J. Cook
In my last article, How to Waste Time and Influence People, we covered productive ways to wander on the Internet. You also can benefit from harnessing the Internet as it relates to your advisory practice. |
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Highlights from Market Commentaries Below are the three most widely read commentaries during the last week:  Three Competing Theories
While the massive budget deficits and the buildup of federal debt, if not addressed, may someday result in a substantial increase in interest rates, that day is not at hand. The U.S. economy is too fragile to sustain higher interest rates except for interim, transitory periods that have been recurring in recent years. As it stands, deflation is our largest concern, therefore we remain fully committed to the long end of the Treasury bond market. Tags: Bullish Treasury Bonds US Inflation Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Three Competing Theories by Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management  A Look at Our 10 Predictions for 2011
At the halfway point of the year, we thought it would be appropriate to look at the predictions we made at the beginning of 2011 to see where we stand. 1. US growth accelerates as US real GDP reaches a new all-time high. US real gross domestic product growth reached a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2011, so we have already gotten the second half of this correct. The first half will be dependent on the degree to which the US economy is able to accelerate in the second half of this year. 2. The US economy creates 2 million to 3 million jobs in 2011 as unemployment falls to 9%. Tags: Investment-Grade Bonds US Employment Monetary Policy Sovereign Debt A Look at Our 10 Predictions for 2011 by Bob Doll of BlackRock Investment Management Widespread Tail Risk Concerns Seem Bullish Tail risk, as the name implies, is the risk of a highly unusual event occurring. A tail risk is often defined as an event occurring that provides a negative return at least three standard deviations below the average return. We doubt that the peak in the current stock market cycle is likely to occur when hedging tail risks is so common. After all, no one discussed tail risks at the market peaks in 2000 or 2007. Just like in previous cycles, the ultimate stock market peak will likely be accompanied by levered investments, rather than by hedged investments. Tags: Equities US Widespread Tail Risk Concerns Seem Bullish by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
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