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August 31, 2010 - Vol 4, Issue 35


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Dear Reader,

State finances are in trouble, in large part due to unfunded pension liabilities.  To assess the depth of those problems, one can look at what is likely the riskiest component of states' pension assets - their exposure to alternative investments and, in particular, to private equity. We assess those risks and look at the larger question of whether unfunded liabilities can trigger municipal defaults.

RidgeWorth Investments has published research detailing six distinct reasons why investors should consider a specific allocation to mid-caps. Specifically, it explores historical performance, evaluates current conditions that favor mid-caps as well as examines how mid-caps have performed during different points in market and economic cycles.  Finally, the research looks at the incremental benefit of adding an allocation of up to 40% of mid-cap stocks to a portfolio of solely large and small cap stocks.  We thank RidgeWorth Investments for their sponsorship.

Do bankers deserve big bonuses? Economists will tell you that bonuses improve employee productivity by rewarding good work. But did the large performance-based payments given to Wall Street securities traders, for example, really steer them to better choices during the run-up to the recent financial crisis? What about financial advisors who base their fees on a percentage of the assets they manage? We take a critical look at Dan Ariely's latest research and the insights it provides.
 
Dan Richards was puzzled by some recent conversations with investors, until he read a column in the New York Times about how to maximize the pleasure from vacations.  The column stemmed from research by behavioral psychologists on how to structure activity to generate the most impact - and led to some striking findings both for planning vacations and for structuring how clients experience their interactions with you.
 
The latest economic prophecy, which has gripped investors' fears for the past three years and counting, is that a 'bubble' in US Treasury bonds is about to burst. Hyperinflation is just around the corner, the prediction goes, and US Treasury bonds, driven up in price to record levels by unprecedented policy measures, are about to crash.  In this guest contribution, Sam Bass writes that advisors shouldn't follow the advice of these "seers."
 
Many investors read about the Dow Jones or S & P 500 index being up or down 200 points but don't really understand what this means.  Today's interview with David Blitzer of S & P provides an explanation of how indexes work that can be shared with clients.  We provide a transcript and a video of the interview.
 
How can advisors evaluate an unconstrained asset manager, such as John Hussman of the Hussman Fund?  In a follow-up to a recent article on research by Roger Ibbotson, we present views from several advisors on the role of returns-based style analysis and whether it can help identify whether managers such as Hussman deliver alpha.
 
Finding a marketing firm for your advisory practice can be a daunting task and hiring the wrong firm can be an expensive mistake.  It is essential that you spend time doing due diligence to find the right partner for your growth.  Kristen Luke provides five steps that will help you with this process.

Lastly, we highlight the most popular submissions to Market Commentaries.

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star logoThe Riskiest Pension Assets (and the Implications for Muni Bonds)

Matt Fabian of Municipal Market Advisors recommends disregarding the comments from "market observers" who point at pension issues as a reason to worry over municipal defaults.  "Any source making this connection has a limited grasp over what, exactly, they are talking about," he said.

The Riskiest Pension Assets (and the Implications for Muni Bonds)


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star logoWhy Mid-Caps?  An Excerpt from a Whitepaper from RidgeWorth Investments

Mid-caps have long been left out of basic asset allocation models, to the detriment of long-term investors. Although they make up approximately 27% of the domestic equity universe, only 15% of mutual fund assets invested in Morningstar's equity style box are invested in funds that are classified as mid-cap (as of 12/31/09).

Why Mid-Caps?


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star logoThe Alternative to Big Bonuses

As Dan Ariely writes, studies suggest that instead of improving performance by increasing motivation, bonuses and other forms of performance-based pay - AUM-based fees included - can actually hurt performance by taking employees' minds off their work.

The Alternative to Big Bonuses

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star logoAn Unexpected Route to Ecstatic Clients

For top clients especially, periodically we need to supplement the "meat and potatoes" routine things that have to happen with something out of the ordinary that spices things up.

An Unexpected Route to Ecstatic Clients


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star logoDouble 'Bubble,' Toil and Trouble

How likely are we to see Treasury rates rise enough to cause "extraordinary" losses as the 'bubble' bursts? While the past never repeats itself, we all use it and our experience to build a framework of expectations for the future. And, simply put, such a meteoric rise in Treasury rates has never come to pass.

Double 'Bubble,' Toil and Trouble


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star logoDavid Blitzer on How Indices Work

David Blitzer is a managing director and the chairman of the S&P Index Committee with overall responsibility for security selection for S&P's indices and index analysis and management.  He shares information which will be familiar to financial advisors, but may be useful in helping clients understand how indices work.

David Blitzer on How Indices Work (transcript)

David Blitzer on How Indices Work (video)


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star logoEvaluating Unconstrained Managers

"Returns-based style analysis (RBSA) is not a "bad" methodology," write Ken Solow and Michael Kitces, "but Roger Ibbotson's use of RSBA to determine the amount of a fund manager's "excess" returns attributable to portfolio policy (versus active management) is problematic."

Evaluating Unconstrained Managers

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star logoFive Steps to Choosing the Right Marketing Firm

Finding the right marketing partner for your business is not an easy process.  You will have to trust your instincts that the firm you hire will have your best interest at heart.  But once you find the right one, you will have the much needed help required to grow your business to the next level. 

Five Steps to Choosing the Right Marketing Firm


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star logoHighlights from Market Commentaries

Below are the three most widely read market commentaries during the past week:


A week ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a new quantitative easing program, purchasing U.S. Treasury securities and paying for those securities by creating billions of dollars in new monetary base. Treasury bond prices surged. With the U.S. economy weakening, this second round of quantitative easing appears likely to continue. Unfortunately, the unintended side effect of this policy shift is likely to be an abrupt collapse of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar.

Why Quantitative Easing Is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds



Doug Short presents charts of the weekly leading index of the Economic Cycle Research Institute and the federal funds rate going back to 1967. The index registered negative growth for the 11th consecutive week on Friday, coming in at -10.0, a fractional improvement from last week's -10.2. The rate of decline from the peak in October 2009 is unprecedented in the Institute's published data. The index has never dropped to the current level without the onset of a recession.

We're Underperforming the Great Depression by Doug Short of Doug Short



Americans now know that housing prices don't always go up, and that they can in fact go down by 30-50 percent in a few short years. Having grown accustomed to a housing market aided and abetted by Uncle Sam, the habit cannot be broken by going cold turkey into the camp of private lending. Private mortgage lenders will demand extraordinary down payments, impeccable credit histories and significantly higher yields than what markets grew used to over the past several decades.

Mr. Gross Goes to Washington by Bill Gross of PIMCO

 

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