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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

April 28, 2009- Vol 3, Issue 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Collaborative


Gary Shilling is well-known for his forecasting record, having correctly predicted major economic events over the past several decades.  Beginning in 2002, he warned his clients that the housing market "has taken on self-feeding, bubble dimensions that will sooner or later collapse," and continued to sound this warning through 2007, when his predictions came trueDr. Shilling shares with us his current forecast for the economy and the market.

If the first quarter of 2009 is any indication, we appear to be in for another year (or longer) of extreme market volatility and uncertainty, the result of a worsening recession and a dismal profit picture, still frozen credit markets, a struggling auto industry, and doubtfulness about the government's stimulus package. Matt Oldroyd, Vice President and Client Portfolio Manager and Shawn Connor, Director, Product Management, Value Equities for American Century Investments explain why that's a strong case for investing in American Century's Equity Income fund - a fund for all seasons.  We thank them for their sponsorship.

Nobody needs an active manager in a bull market - an index fund will do just fine. But active managers earn their keep in bear markets, and the current one represents another chance to see whether they add value.  We review Standard & Poor's SPIVA study to see whether it answers this very important question.

George Friedman is CEO of the private intelligence and forecasting firm STRATFOR and advises clients on the important trends in geopolitics and their impact on world economies.  Friedman spoke at the recent Altegris Strategic Investment Conference about the important trends for investors over the next 100 years.

More articles below...

Van Eck

Two things make your day productive - the first is what you do and the second is how you do it.  Dan Richards provides some practical tips for advisors to structure their days for maximum productivity.

One more bubble, please. After the bubbles in technology, housing, and commodities, we saw the mother of all bubbles: the one in global liquidity. The world economy seemed to require bubbles for its continued functioning.  Guest contributor
Vitaliy Katsenelson says investors' prayers are now being answered: There's a new bubble now - or an old one is being re-inflated - which he calls the Troubled China Revival Program (TCRP).

Building your business is based on developing solid relationships and you know there is no quick way to attract clients.  Twitter is no different- it will expose you to people you never would have met otherwise, but you will not see instant results. Kristen Luke provides the second installment in her two-part series on how to get started with Twitter.

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries.

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Gary Shilling believes we should prepare for slow growth and deflation, and he explains why the government's efforts to "inflate its way out of this crisis" will not succeed.  Shilling gives his forecast for the S&P 500 and the assets classes he likes and dislikes in the market today.

Gary Shilling - Economic Forecast and Current Market Opportunities

 

American Century Equity Income: A Fund for All Seasons


Markets have always been uncertain, but never more so than today. Prospering across these ebbs & flows requires a game plan focused on both performance & protection. American Century Equity Income seeks to maximize returns and minimize risks through a strict focus on value, quality and income - characteristics believed to provide not only better returns over time, but enhanced downside protection and performance consistency as well.

American Century Equity Income: A Fund for All Seasons

 

Active versus Passive Management in Bear Markets

 

When an index provider such as Standard & Poor's claims its indices outperform active managers, we believe a healthy does of skepticism is in order.  We look at the methodology underpinning S&P's latest SPIVA study and show that their results should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Active versus Passive Management in Bear Markets

 

Forecasting 100 Years Ahead

 
"The fundamental problem of the 21st century will be labor shortage," says George Friedman of STRATFOR.  "Capital will outstrip the availability of labor." As a result, he expects robotics to be a critical industry, attracting surplus capital to both create systems that can compensate for labor shortages and to develop energy sources to drive these advancements.

Forecasting 100 Years Ahead

 

Structuring Your Day for Maximum Productivity


A number of advisors have begun using a simple idea to dramatically increase the return they get on their day, by ensuring they're focusing on high return activities.  Making your time in the office productive requires intentionally stepping back at the start of the week and asking "what is the highest and best use of this week as a whole and each day within this week?"

Structuring Your Day for Maximum Productivity

 

The Next Great Bubble?


China needs to stimulate its economy. It's facing a very delicate situation indeed - which is a nice way of saying that China's screwed. China needs money internally to finance its continued growth. However, if it were to sell dollar-denominated treasuries, several bad things would happen, and Vitaliy Katsenelson tells you what they are.

The Next Great Bubble?

 

Twitter Your Way to New Clients, Part Two


For Twitter to work, you must be genuine and you must put in the effort.  Kristen Luke shows how to strike the right balance between personal and business "Tweets," and why it is important to add value in your communications via this new medium.

Twitter Your Way to New Clients, Part Two

 

Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries

 
The analysts at Litman Gregory provide their current thinking about the investment landscape. They also spend some time going into thorough detail on their analysis and outlook for equities in particular as well as other asset classes.

Read the commentary

According to Nouriel Roubini of the RGE Monitor, by the end of Q1 2009, there were some signs that the pace of contraction had slowed in many economies especially in the
U.S. and China, where policy responses have been more significant and leading indicators in the manufacturing sector may have bottomed before they did in Europe and Japan.

Read the commentary

 

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