Regardless of the series you use, the USD seems to have broken out of a 20-month trading range and is trading at the highest level in well over a decade.
More than one out of five developed market stocks and more than two out of five emerging market stocks are in a bear market (down over 20% from a high) in the past 200 days.
We all know that stocks are a leading indicator of economic growth and disappointingly recent breadth measures suggest that economic activity may slow over the next several months.
Back in September we explained how US treasury yields were at parity with foreign government bonds for many foreign investors (namely euro and yen-based investors) from a currency hedged basis.
General consensus seems to have quickly moved to a view that a Trump administration is going to be inflationary for the US and the global economy.
Investors love to toss around fundamental data points that are pretty meaningless without context.
Brazil’s trade data in October was abysmal. Exports fell 10.2% year-over-year to $13.721 billion and imports fell 15% year-over-year to $11.375 billion.
Regular readers are aware of our research showing that the Knowledge Effect is really a “super factor”.
October was a pretty good month, all things considered, for economic data out of Europe. Industrial production out of Germany, Italy, France and for the Euro-Area aggregate all surprised to the upside.
Neither the bulls nor the bears are winning the equity market battle right now. When markets have strong momentum, either positive or negative, than you tend to see big spikes in 20-days highs (when positive) and lows (when negative). Currently, we see neither.