With today's release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.6% month over month. The seasonally adjusted year-over-year change has hovered between 4.4% and 5.4% for the last twenty-three months. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) reached another new high.
The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through December 15. The headline number of 113,7 was an increase from the final reading of 109.4 for November, an upward revision from 107.1. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 109.0.
This morning's release of the November New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 592K, up 5.2% month-over-month from 563K in October. Seasonally adjusted estimates for August, September, and October were revised. The Investing.com forecast was for 575K.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on yesterday morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
The BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for November, released yesterday, shows that core inflation remains below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.65%. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through November, is higher at 2.11%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data for its primary inflation gauge. Headline inflation for both series is conspicuously lower, largely a result of low energy costs.
"Index shows economic growth decreased slightly in November." This is the headline for today's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening to the summary: Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from October, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in November.
The Third Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 3.52%, up from 1.4% in the Third Estimate of Q2 GDP. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.65%. The adjacent chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than long-term trend.
The latest index came in at 11.0, up from last month's 1.0, which indicates improving activity. The future outlook increased to 19.0 from 12.0 last month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for October was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index rose 0.04% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.37% year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.0% MoM and 1.65% YoY. Core PCE remains below the Fed's 2% target rate.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released the U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for the most recent month. U.S. house prices rose in October, up 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 6.2% (nonseasonally adjusted).