Today's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.4%. It is at 1.6% year-over-year, unchanged from last month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.2% MoM, down from 0.4% the previous month and is up 1.6% YoY. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.3% headline and 0.1% core.
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Let's take a closer look at the recent rally in US Treasuries . The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.40% and the 30-year bond closed at 2.99%.
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.9, up 0.2 from the previous week. It is currently at an all-time high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 10.49%, up from 10.14% the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 12.2, up from 12.0 the previous week and its highest since 2010.
The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 98.1, down fractionally from the December Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.5.
Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.
Last July CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.
Today's seasonally adjusted 247K new claims, up 10K from last week's revised number, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 255K.
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading came in at 13.1, up from the previous week 28.6.
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week's Employment Report. This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.