Four Worst Market Calls Ever
November 15, 2011
The media’s agenda is different from yours
Last summer, the New York Times examined why the media consistently provides a platform to financial gurus with extreme, often simplistic (and sometimes simple-minded) views.
The answer was simple – middle of the road, consensus thinking is boring; it’s much more interesting to have a guest with provocative, unconventional opinions. That’s led to a body of “they never saw a mike they didn’t love” experts in the field of politics and investing, opining on events of the day. Sometimes called media hounds or the less complimentary media whores, these experts can be omnipresent.
Very few of these media gurus manage meaningful amounts of money;; often their biggest asset is their reputation. But that doesn’t prevent clients who watch their interviews from getting worked up and potentially deflected from their plan.
So if we recognize that most of these experts’ impact on clients is neutral at best and can in fact do significant damage, the question is what to do about it.
Bringing facts and reason into play
Just telling clients to ignore these gurus won’t typically work – the very fact that they are given a media platform, deserved or not, gives them credibility.
That’s why I was struck by the reasoned, fact-based approach to this topic in a video by industry veteran and Columbia professor Michael Mauboussin. A repeat winner of Institutional Investor’s All-America research team, he has served as chief US investment strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston and is currently chief investment strategist for Legg Mason Capital Management
Mauboussin points to research proving that expert predictions do not beat the market, and that there is even a negative correlation between media profile and accuracy – the higher an expert’s media profile, the worse they do.
This video lasts three minutes. For those looking for a more in-depth perspective, here is a 30-minute interview with Mauboussin.
You could share these videos with clients who ask about views they’ve seen on television – or strike a pre-emptive blow by sending the links to all your clients. While you can’t control what your clients see on television, you can try to influence how they’ll respond.
Dan Richards is a top-rated presenter at advisor conferences and an award winning instructor in the MBA program at the University of Toronto, as well as author of Getting Clients Keeping Clients: The Essential Guide for Tomorrow’s Financial Advisor. To learn more about his conference keynotes and workshops, email .
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